FMNB

AI Memo

Farmers National Banc

As of 2026-04-15/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Middlefield integration gets its first full-quarter scorecard • 2026-07-15

Expected move: +4%

Biggest risk

The thesis is still execution-heavy. Elevated recent charge-offs, merger integration risk, and conversion-related expense pressure could offset the benefit of added scale.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary evidence supports a modestly constructive view: margin expanded through 2025, customer deposits excluding brokered CDs grew, and the Middlefield merger adds scale if integration stays clean.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-15

Base target

$15

p=45%

Bull target

$17

p=30%

Bear target

$12

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Credit-cost spike needs to prove transitory
Primary evidence supports a modestly constructive view: margin expanded through 2025, customer deposits excluding brokered CDs grew, and the Middlefield merger adds scale if integration stays clean.
The structured prior is positive and the packet’s median analyst target of about $14.67 sits only modestly above the $13.96 anchor, which argues for restrained upside assumptions rather than a rerating call.

BearKey bullets

Core conversion slips or costs more than expected, delaying the targeted expense benefit.
Credit losses or reserve needs remain elevated after the Q4 2025 problem-loan actions.
Low coverage and limited forward disclosures keep the setup more monitoring-oriented than high-conviction.

WatchKey bullets

Middlefield integration gets its first full-quarter scorecard

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $15 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +4% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=30%)Base Target: $15 (p=45%)Bear Target: $12 (p=25%)

Commentary

Deterministic signals remain positive, but thesis-change intensity is only moderate and the forward setup is still mainly a monitoring view. FMNB has strong primary-source context, yet most upside depends on executing the just-closed merger, keeping credit noise contained, and converting platform changes into visible earnings lift.

As of 2026-04-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Primary evidence supports a modestly constructive view: margin expanded through 2025, customer deposits excluding brokered CDs grew, and the Middlefield merger adds scale if integration stays clean.

Bear Case

The thesis is still execution-heavy. Elevated recent charge-offs, merger integration risk, and conversion-related expense pressure could offset the benefit of added scale.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Credit-cost spike needs to prove transitory

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=25% prob

Price $14 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +4% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-15
Middlefield integration gets its first full-quarter scorecard
Farmers completed the Middlefield merger on March 2, 2026, and said the deal lifts the company to over $7.4 billion in banking assets and 83 branches, but the same release also flags integration and combined-company performance risk. The first full-quarter read-through on deposit retention, expense control, and credit carryover is the main near-term swing factor. [#IR-2026-03-02] [#8-K-2026-03-17]
Prob 64.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 58.00%
EVENT2026-08-31
August 2026 core conversion could unlock targeted expense savings
Management said the core platform transition should be completed in August 2026 and should save about $2.0 million annually, or roughly $0.04 per diluted share, once finished. Delivery matters because consulting and conversion costs already pressured 2025 expenses. [#IR-2025-10-22]
Prob 57.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 46.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Credit-cost spike needs to prove transitory
2026-04-29
Fourth-quarter 2025 provision expense rose to $2.3 million and annualized net charge-offs reached 0.59% after specific problem-loan actions, even though non-performing loans fell to $26.2 million by year-end. A cleaner quarterly credit print would help support the post-merger earnings case; another surprise reserve build would likely weigh on shares. [#10-K-2026-03-05] [#IR-2026-01-28]
Prob 55% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Core conversion slips or costs more than expected, delaying the targeted expense benefit.
Credit losses or reserve needs remain elevated after the Q4 2025 problem-loan actions.
Low coverage and limited forward disclosures keep the setup more monitoring-oriented than high-conviction.
Middlefield integration misses on deposit retention, expense saves, or credit quality.
Rate-path changes reduce the expected liability-sensitive margin tailwind.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ACNB	Direct small-cap community bank peer by sector and market cap; useful for valuation and merger-execution comparison.
BWB	Similar-sized bank comp for deposit mix, credit-cost volatility, and operating leverage.
FFIC	Relevant small-bank peer for funding-cost and margin sensitivity checks.
PGC	Another nearby-cap bank comp for credit and valuation cross-checks, though geography differs.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-15

AI Stock Memo: FMNB - Farmers National Banc - RankAlpha