B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SUPV
Grupo SupervielleCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest pro-thesis evidence remains management's 1Q26 claim that cost of risk peaked in 4Q25, monthly underlying earnings turned positive in March, and April trends stayed constructive, with CET1 still at 15.4% [#IR-2026-05-06]. The AP earnings snapshot also said adjusted EPS beat a small Zacks consensus, which supports a modest recovery narrative even though the quarter still showed a reported loss [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-26].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.0.
What can break
Argentina macro, inflation-accounting, and regulatory conditions still complicate comparability and can swing margins, demand, and reported capital outcomes.
Momentum
14
Value
35
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.80 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-07-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.47
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +4.5
Value35 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment78 · Δ7d -4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Argentina macro, inflation-accounting, and regulatory conditions still complicate comparability and can swing margins, demand, and reported capital outcomes.
- • If delinquency or cost of risk worsens again after 1Q26, the early earnings-recovery thesis can break quickly.
- • The same 1Q26 release still showed an attributable net loss of AR$17.1 billion, weaker local-currency loan demand, and deposits down 4.7% QoQ, while the AP snapshot said revenue net of interest expense missed Street forecasts [#IR-2026-05-06] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-26].
Catalyst clock
2026-08-10
2Q26 must confirm that credit costs and monthly earnings stabilized after the 1Q26 reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+6.4
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
-11.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 13.7 / Value 35.4 / Sentiment 77.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$762.59M
Beta
1.61
Shares Out
76.19M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-22.5
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM)
1.18
Rev YoY
+2.6%
EPS YoY
-23.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+0.6%
Net Debt
-$281.35M
Current Ratio
0.46
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data