B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
+39.3% vs current
SUPV
Grupo SupervielleDNYSE / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-07-21
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.80
+11.5% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
-27.8% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-05
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+22.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+23.1
Positive
Pulse
-30.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+53.9
Score
AI commentary
Recent coverage is narrow and mostly tied to the company's May 6, 2026 1Q26 release, the April 8, 2026 Form 20-F filing announcement, and an AP/Zacks earnings snapshot. The checked evidence supports a mixed post-print read: adjusted EPS beat a small consensus, but revenue net of interest expense missed and the company still reported a net loss [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-26]. Verified analyst target changes or estimate revisions were unavailable in the reviewed sources, and no usable social packet was provided, so sentiment remains a cautious monitoring setup ahead of the Aug. 10, 2026 2Q26 release.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-05
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-10catalyst2Q26 must confirm that credit costs and monthly earnings stabilized after the 1Q26 resetHigh impact
The May 6, 2026 company release said adjusted net income was AR$6.7 billion excluding severance, net cost of risk eased to 6% from 10% in 4Q25, and March underlying earnings turned positive with the trend extending into April; the next test is whether that improvement carries into the Aug. 10, 2026 2Q26 press release [#IR-2026-05-06] [#IR-2026-07-05].
2026-09-30event2025 Form 20-F filing reduces disclosure friction but does not by itself solve earnings visibilityMedium impact
The April 8, 2026 investor-relations release said the 2025 Form 20-F was filed with SEC financials presented under IFRS without exceptions and flagged significant differences versus the BCRA-based local statements, which helps ADR comparability and diligence but is more of a credibility and transparency checkpoint than a direct earnings driver [#IR-2026-04-08].
2026-12-31catalystFunding mix discipline and digital ecosystem execution remain the main self-help leverHigh impact
Management said 1Q26 deposits fell partly because it intentionally reduced higher-cost wholesale peso funding, while U.S.-dollar loans and deposits rose in original-currency terms, headcount was reduced by 9% in banking, and IOL assets under custody reached US$2.7 billion; if those actions produce a leaner cost base and better cross-sell, normalized returns could improve into late 2026 [#IR-2026-05-06].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-05 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology