AI Stock Memo: SJM - J.M Smucker - RankAlpha

SJM

Rating buyAI Memo

J.M Smucker

As of 2026-02-06/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings release • 2026-05-07

Expected move: +11%

Biggest risk

Bear case: persistent input-cost inflation, weaker retail demand, or accelerated share loss to private‑label compresses margins and forces downward revisions to consensus targets; under this scenario shares test low-double-digit downside vs. the anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $100 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: SJM sustains pricing power, executes cost and margin initiatives, and benefits from stable retail demand; base_target (115.0) is essentially aligned with the reported analyst median (114.935) while bull_target (130.0) sits above the median but below the consensus high (158), and bear_target (100.0) is below the reported analyst low (104.86). This path assumes gradual margin recovery and modest multiple expansion within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-06

Base target

$115

p=65%

Bull target

$130

p=20%

Bear target

$100

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst revisions / sentiment shifts
Commodity-cost and margin trajectory
Bull case: SJM sustains pricing power, executes cost and margin initiatives, and benefits from stable retail demand; base_target (115.0) is essentially aligned with the reported analyst median (114.935) while bull_target (130.0) sits above the median but below the consensus high (158), and bear_target (100.0) is below the reported analyst low (104.86).

BearKey bullets

Commodity input-cost inflation squeezing margins
Retail demand softness and private-label competition
Unfavorable analyst downgrades or target cuts

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $115 (p=65%)

Bull/Bear spread: +26% / -3%

Vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +11% · Bear -3%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $130 (p=20%)Base Target: $115 (p=65%)Bear Target: $100 (p=15%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is neutral-to-cautious with consensus targets clustered in the low-to-mid $110s, implying limited but tangible upside vs. the anchor [#SERP-1]. Aggregated analyst summaries show a mix of buy/hold views with a small number of higher-conviction outliers, indicating moderate dispersion in expectations [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst revisions / sentiment shifts
Commodity-cost and margin trajectory

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-06Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$114.94

Range (USD)

$104.86 - $158.00

Count

Query: J.M. Smucker Co Common (SJM) analyst consensus price target high low average

SJM | J.M. Smucker Co. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #1
J.M. Smucker Co. ; High, $130.00 ; Median, $115.00 ; Low, $105.00 ; Average, $115.50 ; Current Price, $104.86 ...
Extracted: $130.00, $115.00, $105.00, $115.50, $104.86Open source
JM Smucker (SJM) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for JM Smucker is 114.87, with a high estimate of 130 and a low estimate of 105 ...
Open source
JM Smucker Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:SJM
Search result #3
JM Smucker Co has a consensus price target of $122.89 based on the ratings of 20 analysts. The high is $158 issued by UBS on June 7, 2023. The low is $105 ...
Extracted: $122.89, $158.00, $105.00Open source
SJM Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026
Search result #4
Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $114.54, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price. What is the 2026 price prediction for SJM?
Extracted: $114.54Open source
The JM Smucker Company: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #5
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 19 ; Last Close Price. 104.86USD ; Average target price. 114.87USD ; Spread / Average Target. +9.54%.
Extracted: $104.86, $114.87Open source
SJM - The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE) - Share Price and News
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for The J. M. Smucker Company is $117.31. The forecasts range from a low of $106.05 to a high of $136.50. A stock's price ...
Extracted: $117.31, $106.05, $136.50Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$130 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$115 / p=65% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=15% prob

Price $103 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +11% · Bear -3%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
Quarterly earnings release
Next quarterly results and guidance update can materially re-rate SJM vs. consensus; date estimated conservatively based on typical FYQ cadence and may drive near-term volatility [#SERP-1].
Prob 60.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst revisions / sentiment shifts
2026-05-07
Upgrades/downgrades and target changes around results or margin outlook often trigger multi-percent moves; consensus targets clustered in the low-to-mid $110s frame potential reaction size [#SERP-1][#SERP-3].
Prob 50% • Move 6% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commodity-cost and margin trajectory
2027-02-06
Multi-quarter improvement or deterioration in commodity and input costs (and SJM's ability to pass through pricing) will determine structural margin recovery or compression; treated as a long-duration outcome [#SERP-5].
Prob 35% • Move 12% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Commodity input-cost inflation squeezing margins
Retail demand softness and private-label competition
Unfavorable analyst downgrades or target cuts

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GIS	General Mills — broad branded portfolio across retail channels; comparable exposure to commodity cycles and trade promotions.
CAG	Conagra Brands — packaged‑food peer with high sensitivity to retail assortments and cost pass‑through ability; informs downside scenarios.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: J.M. Smucker Co Common (SJM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-06