AI Stock Memo: BF.B - Brown-Forman - RankAlpha

BF.B

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

Brown-Forman

As of 2026-04-17/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

high-coverage catalyst set is still too generic or cadence-driven; high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY26 YTD / Q3 results and management commentary (posted) • 2026-03-04

Expected move: +22%

Biggest risk

Slower-than-expected consumer demand or channel de-stocking reduces near-term volumes and forces pricing concessions; higher input costs or FX pressure compresses margins and limits upside.

Invalidation

Break below $24 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Stable brand momentum with favorable pricing/mix and continued margin resilience drives upside to premium multiples; successful holiday/seasonal sell-through and any accelerated buybacks would support a higher multiple.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-17

Base target

$31

p=50%

Bull target

$37

p=30%

Bear target

$24

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings / guidance update (typical cadence)
Stable brand momentum with favorable pricing/mix and continued margin resilience drives upside to premium multiples; successful holiday/seasonal sell-through and any accelerated buybacks would support a higher multiple.
ANCHOR: {"price": 29.46, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst median target (~$29.49) sits near the anchor; my base target ($31.00) is modestly above the analyst median reflecting a cautious premium for brand durability, while the bull ($37.00) and bear ($24.00) span the market's high/low dispersion and idiosyncratic risk profile.

BearKey bullets

Channel de‑stocking or accelerated retail promotions
Execution risk on pricing / mix strategy
Input cost and FX pressure on margins

WatchKey bullets

FY26 YTD / Q3 results and management commentary (posted)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $31 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +45% / -6%

Vs latest close: Bull +45% · Base +22% · Bear -6%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $37 (p=30%)Base Target: $31 (p=50%)Bear Target: $24 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus is mixed-to-neutral with analyst median roughly in line with the current price; recent company YTD results (3/4/2026) anchored near-term sentiment and the next quarterly release will re-test expectations [#IR-undated] [#SERP-2]. Institutional coverage shows a wide high/low spread reflecting varied views on margin leverage and brand growth prospects [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-04-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Slower-than-expected consumer demand or channel de-stocking reduces near-term volumes and forces pricing concessions; higher input costs or FX pressure compresses margins and limits upside.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings / guidance update (typical cadence)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-17Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$29.49

Range (USD)

$22.00 - $69.00

Count

Query: Brown-Forman Corporation Class B Common (BF.B) analyst consensus price target high low average

BF.B | Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B Analyst Estimates & Ratings - WSJ
Search result #2
Stock Price Target BF.B. High, $35.00. Median, $30.00. Low, $22.00. Average, $28.81. Current Price, $29.57. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $35.00, $30.00, $22.00, $28.81, $29.57Open source
Brown Forman (BFb) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Brown Forman is 29.23 USD, with a high estimate of 37 USD and a low ...
Extracted: $29.23, $37.00Open source
BF.B Analyst Ratings for Brown Forman Cl B Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #5
Brown Forman Inc Cl B (BF.B). Brown Forman Inc Cl B (BF.B). 22.94 -0.21 ... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low ...
Open source
BF.B Stock Forecast - Brown-Forman Corp - Alpha Spread
Search result #7
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BF.B is 29.38 USD with a low forecast of 22.22 USD and a high forecast of 43.52 USD.
Extracted: $29.38, $22.22, $43.52Open source
Brown-Forman Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #8
Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 17 ; Last Close Price. 29.57USD ; Average target price. 29.23USD ; Spread / Average Target. -1.16%.
Extracted: $29.57, $29.23Open source
BF.B | Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #9
Stock Price Targets. High, $35.00. Median, $29.50. Low, $22.00. Average, $28.60. Current Price, $29.49. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BF.B will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $35.00, $29.50, $22.00, $28.60, $29.49Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$37 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=20% prob

Price $26 as of 2026-06-17

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +45% · Base +22% · Bear -6%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-04
FY26 YTD / Q3 results and management commentary (posted)
Company released year-to-date fiscal 2026 results and held a Q3 earnings conference call on 2026-03-04; market reaction and any management commentary on full-year outlook or channel inventory/ pricing were focal drivers for near-term sentiment [#IR-undated].
Prob 90.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 80.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings / guidance update (typical cadence)
2026-07-16
Next quarterly earnings release (next fiscal quarter) often drives organic-demand, pricing/mix commentary and any updates to full-year guidance; absent a firm company date in the packet, use a short-horizon monitoring date for the next report cycle (estimated) and watch channel inventory and pricing comments [#IR-undated].
Prob 65% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Channel de‑stocking or accelerated retail promotions
Execution risk on pricing / mix strategy
Input cost and FX pressure on margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BF.A	Class-A share of same company; useful control for corporate actions and dividend policy comparators.
TAP	Large beverage peer with consumer-brand exposure and price/mix cadence similar to Brown‑Forman across on‑ and off‑premise channels.
COKE	Regional beverage bottler/producer with consumer-brand and channel inventory dynamics that can act as a demand/mix sanity-check.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Brown-Forman Corporation Class B Common (BF.B) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-17