AI Stock Memo: BF.A - Brown-Forman - RankAlpha

BF.A

Rating neutralAI Memo

Brown-Forman

As of 2026-04-17/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter / full-year earnings (market expectation Jun 3, 2026) • 2026-06-03

Expected move: +14%

Biggest risk

Weaker-than-expected consumer demand or adverse FX/commodity impacts compress margins and prompt guidance cut; inventory destocking in key channels reduces near-term organic growth and drives the share toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $24 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Reaffirmed or upgraded FY26 outlook plus stronger-than-expected pricing/mix and travel-retailer recovery lifts organic growth and margins; multiple expansion to premium peer multiples drives stock toward the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-17

Base target

$31

p=55%

Bull target

$36

p=25%

Bear target

$24

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Reaffirmed or upgraded FY26 outlook plus stronger-than-expected pricing/mix and travel-retailer recovery lifts organic growth and margins; multiple expansion to premium peer multiples drives stock toward the bull target.
ANCHOR: {"price": 29.78, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst median (~$29.68) is close to our base target; our base (30.50) sits slightly above the analyst median reflecting modest upside from steady dividend and potential pricing/mix tailwinds, while the bull scenario tracks toward the analyst high range when brand momentum and margin improvements materialize [#SERP-6] [#SERP-2].

BearKey bullets

Channel inventory destocking (travel retail / on‑premise) affects revenue cadence
Consumer demand slowdown in premium spirits
Dividend or capital-allocation disappointment

WatchKey bullets

Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter / full-year earnings (market expectation Jun 3, 2026)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $31 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +35% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base +14% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $36 (p=25%)Base Target: $31 (p=55%)Bear Target: $24 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is neutral-to-cautious: analysts' median target sits near the current price, implying limited upside absent clear margin or revenue beats [#SERP-6]. Recent company press scheduling and the March results release confirm standard cadence and a stable dividend narrative, supporting income-focused investor interest [#PR-2026-02-04] [#IR-undated]. Short-term sentiment will hinge on the upcoming early-June earnings release and any FY26 outlook revision [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-04-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Reaffirmed or upgraded FY26 outlook plus stronger-than-expected pricing/mix and travel-retailer recovery lifts organic growth and margins; multiple expansion to premium peer multiples drives stock toward the bull target.

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-17Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$29.68

Range (USD)

$22.00 - $44.24

Count

Query: Brown-Forman Corporation Class A Common (BF.A) analyst consensus price target high low average

BF.A | Brown-Forman Corp. Cl A Analyst Estimates & Ratings - WSJ
Search result #6
Stock Price Target BF.A. High, $35.00. Median, $30.00. Low, $22.00. Average, $28.65. Current Price, $27.09. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $35.00, $30.00, $22.00, $28.65, $27.09Open source
BF.A | Brown-Forman Corp. Cl A Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $37.50. Median, $30.00. Low, $24.00. Average, $30.23. Current Price, $29.92. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BF.A will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $37.50, $30.00, $24.00, $30.23, $29.92Open source
BF.A Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratings - ChartMill
Search result #3
23 analysts have analysed BF.A and the average price target is 30.44 USD. This implies a price increase of 1.21% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $30.44Open source
Brown-forman (bf.a) Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy BF-A?
Search result #4
The Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.A) stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there ...
Open source
Brown-Forman Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #5
Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 17 ; Last Close Price. 29.57USD ; Average target price. 29.23USD ; Spread / Average Target. -1.16%.
Extracted: $29.57, $29.23Open source
Brown-Forman Corp. Cl A Research & Ratings | BF.A - Barron's
Search result #7
Stock Price Target ; High, $35.00 ; Low, $22.00 ; Average, $28.65 ; Current Price, $25.99 ...
Extracted: $35.00, $22.00, $28.65, $25.99Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=20% prob

Price $27 as of 2026-06-18

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base +14% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-03
Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter / full-year earnings (market expectation Jun 3, 2026)
Market expects Brown‑Forman to report its fiscal Q4 / full‑year results in early June; scheduling behavior and prior-quarter scheduling were announced via company IR/PR channels (see prior Q3 release schedule) and calendar aggregators [#PR-2026-02-04] [#IR-undated] [#SERP-4]. Results could reprice shares via organic-growth / pricing-and-mix disclosure and FY27 outlook commentary.
Prob 85.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2027-04-17
FY2026 results / management outlook and margin drivers (pricing & mix) to re-assert premium brand momentum
Management typically uses the quarterly release to update full‑year outlook and discuss pricing/mix and channel inventory; a reaffirmation or upgrade to FY26 outlook and margin bridge (pricing/mix, travel retail recovery) would support a material re-rating [#PR-2026-02-04] [#IR-undated] [#SERP-3].
Prob 55.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Risks

Channel inventory destocking (travel retail / on‑premise) affects revenue cadence
Consumer demand slowdown in premium spirits
Dividend or capital-allocation disappointment
FX and commodity cost pressures compress margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BF.B	Same-company share class; trades with the same operating fundamentals and dividend policy dynamics.
TAP	Molson Coors—comparable consumer beverage exposure and sensitivity to channel inventory and pricing/mix trends.
MKC	McCormick—consumer-packed goods peer with pricing/mix and global retail/foodservice channel dynamics relevant to brand pricing power.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Brown-Forman Corporation Class A Common (BF.A) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-17