AI Stock Memo: MKC - McCormick Non-Vtg - RankAlpha

MKC

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

McCormick Non-Vtg

As of 2026-03-31/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

future-looking catalyst discovery is still SERP-only and has not been confirmed by a primary source; high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results release and reaffirmed FY2026 outlook (company 8-K) • 2026-03-31

Expected move: +48%

Biggest risk

Failure to fully pass through input-costs, execution disruption from large-scale M&A, or leverage-driven margin pressure leads to EPS downside and multiple compression toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $52 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful execution of pricing/mix actions plus any value-accretive M&A (with disciplined financing) leads to faster EPS recovery and multiple expansion toward premium food peers; revenue synergies from new assortments and sustained gross-margin tailwinds push shares toward the bull target within 12–18 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-31

Base target

$70

p=55%

Bull target

$85

p=25%

Bear target

$52

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Execution of pricing/mix and margin-recovery plan (driving FY2026–FY2027 EPS expansion)
Successful execution of pricing/mix actions plus any value-accretive M&A (with disciplined financing) leads to faster EPS recovery and multiple expansion toward premium food peers; revenue synergies from new assortments and sustained gross-margin tailwinds push shares toward the bull target within 12–18 months.
ANCHOR: {"price": 55.12, "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T12:14:29+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst consensus/midpoint sits near $70–70.35 (median 70.35 from aggregated targets); my base target of $70 is aligned with that median and within the analyst low/high range [#SERP-9] [#SERP-6].

BearKey bullets

Consumer demand weakness or retail inventory destocking
Failure to sustain pricing/mix improvements
Input-cost or supply-chain shock compressing gross margins

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 results release and reaffirmed FY2026 outlook (company 8-K)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $70 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +80% / +10%

Vs latest close: Bull +80% · Base +48% · Bear +10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $85 (p=25%)Base Target: $70 (p=55%)Bear Target: $52 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: recent company communications and the 8-K reaffirmation read positively for near-term momentum [#8-K-2026-03-31], while analysts retain a buy-leaning consensus with a median target above the anchor [#SERP-6]. However, news-driven M&A chatter introduces material event risk and short-term volatility [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-03-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Failure to fully pass through input-costs, execution disruption from large-scale M&A, or leverage-driven margin pressure leads to EPS downside and multiple compression toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Execution of pricing/mix and margin-recovery plan (driving FY2026–FY2027 EPS expansion)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-31Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$70.35

Range (USD)

$53.07 - $96.00

Count

Query: McCormick & Company Inc Common (MKC) analyst consensus price target high low average

McCormick & Co. Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings - MKC - WSJ
Search result #9
Stock Price Target MKC. High, $83.00. Median, $67.00. Low, $55.00. Average, $69.82. Current Price, $53.07. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $83.00, $67.00, $55.00, $69.82, $53.07Open source
McCormick&Co (MKC) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 13 analysts, the average 12-month price target for McCormick&Co is 69.31 USD, with a high estimate of 83 USD and a low ...
Extracted: $69.31, $83.00Open source
McCormick (MKC) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #2
Financial analysts have set a price target of $72.12, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $72.12Open source
MKC Stock Forecast - McCormick & Company Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MKC is 74.17 USD with a low forecast of 59.59 USD and a high forecast of 90.3 USD. What ...
Extracted: $74.17, $59.59, $90.30Open source
McCormick & Co. Inc. Analyst Estimates - MKC - MarketWatch
Search result #4
McCormick & Co. Inc. ; High, $83.00 ; Median, $67.00 ; Low, $55.00 ; Average, $68.82 ; Current Price, $53.07 ...
Extracted: $83.00, $67.00, $55.00, $68.82, $53.07Open source
McCormick & Company (MKC) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets
Search result #6
The 8 analysts that cover McCormick & Company stock have a consensus rating of "Buy" and an average price target of $70.88, which forecasts a 33.63% increase in ...
Extracted: $70.88Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$85 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$70 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=20% prob

Price $47 as of 2026-06-16

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +80% · Base +48% · Bear +10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Q1 2026 results release and reaffirmed FY2026 outlook (company 8-K)
Company filed an 8-K reporting strong Q1 performance and reconfirming its 2026 outlook; market will parse organic growth, pricing/mix and margin cadence from Q1 detail and management commentary [#8-K-2026-03-31].
Prob 95.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-04-30
Market reaction / integration risk from reported Unilever food-business bid
Recent news reports claim McCormick is pursuing Unilever's food business; any formal bid, financing details or announced transaction would be a major strategic catalyst that could alter leverage, synergies and near-term execution risk [#SERP-2] (news packet; treat as developing).
Prob 35.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Execution of pricing/mix and margin-recovery plan (driving FY2026–FY2027 EPS expansion)
2027-03-31
Management and the 2025 10-K describe pricing, mix and cost actions intended to restore margins; continued execution over the next 12 months could materially improve EPS and multiple re-rating [#10-K-2026-01-22] (company disclosures).
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Consumer demand weakness or retail inventory destocking
Failure to sustain pricing/mix improvements
Input-cost or supply-chain shock compressing gross margins
Integration and financing risk from any large-scale acquisition

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GIS	Large branded consumer foods peer; useful comparator for branded pricing power and shelf-stable consumer demand trends.
BF.A	Branded consumer-packaged-goods peer with emphasis on premium pricing and margin management; comparable for brand-driven resilience.
BG	Agri/food supply peer relevant for benchmarking input-cost exposure and channel inventory dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: McCormick & Company Inc Common (MKC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-31