SITE

AI Memo

SiteOne Landscape Supply

As of 2026-02-13/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Near-term quarterly results and guidance update • 2026-05-14

Expected move: +54%

Biggest risk

Prolonged weak spring demand, higher input/freight costs, or failed execution compress margins and earnings, triggering downward revisions and re-rating toward the analyst low (125.06).

Invalidation

Break below $125 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Procurement and distribution improvements plus resilient spring demand drive margin expansion and earnings upside, prompting multiple expansion toward the analyst high (200.0). Execution and sustained volume are required for this outcome.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-13

Base target

$151

p=60%

Bull target

$200

p=20%

Bear target

$125

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term quarterly results and guidance update
Seasonal demand and commodity/input cost pressure into spring peak
Execution of margin and supply-chain initiatives

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on distribution/synergy initiatives
Input-cost inflation and freight/sourcing disruptions
Volume sensitivity to weather-driven seasonal demand

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 159.21, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-12T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} NOTE: Anchor price (159.21) is above our base_target (151.425); the 'hold' recommendation reflects limited near-term upside from current market levels and uncertainty around execution/timing.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $151 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +103% / +27%

Vs latest close: Bull +103% · Base +54% · Bear +27%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $200 (p=20%)Base Target: $151 (p=60%)Bear Target: $125 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst coverage shows dispersion with a median in the low-$150s while highs reach roughly $200, producing mixed near-term sentiment [#SERP-3], [#SERP-6]. Short-term market tone is cautious around margins and seasonal demand risk, while longer-term views hinge on measurable progress in procurement and distribution execution [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-02-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Prolonged weak spring demand, higher input/freight costs, or failed execution compress margins and earnings, triggering downward revisions and re-rating toward the analyst low (125.06).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term quarterly results and guidance update
Seasonal demand and commodity/input cost pressure into spring peak
Execution of margin and supply-chain initiatives

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$151.43

Range (USD)

$125.06 - $200.00

Count

Query: SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc Common (SITE) analyst consensus price target high low average

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
SiteOne (NYSE:SITE) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q4 CY2025 Earnings.
Open source
SiteOne Landscape Supply Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Search result #2
SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc has a consensus price target of $152.75 based on the ratings of 14 analysts. The high is $182 issued by UBS on February 13, 2025. ...
Extracted: $152.75, $182.00Open source
SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #3
SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc. ; High, $185.00 ; Median, $149.00 ; Low, $134.00 ; Average, $153.70 ; Current Price, $125.06 ...
Extracted: $185.00, $149.00, $134.00, $153.70, $125.06Open source
SiteOne Landscape Supply (NYSE:SITE) - Stock Analysis
Search result #4
Price target increased by 11% to US$172 · Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise · SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 11, 2026.
Extracted: $172.00Open source
Consensus SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #5
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 11 ; Last Close Price. 148.03USD ; Average target price. 155.50USD ; Spread / Average Target. +5.05%.
Extracted: $148.03, $155.50Open source
Siteone Landscape Supply Inc Stock Price Today | NYSE: SITE Live
Search result #6
The average 12-month price target for Siteone Landscape Supply is USD166.10, with a high estimate of USD200 and a low estimate of USD147. 6 analysts recommend ...
Extracted: $166.10, $200.00, $147.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$200 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$151 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$125 / p=20% prob

Price $99 as of 2026-07-23

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 27%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +103% · Base +54% · Bear +27%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term quarterly results and guidance update
2026-05-14
Q4/FY2025 results and management commentary previously moved shares; next formal quarterly update or guidance revision likely to shift consensus and direction [#SERP-1], [#SERP-3]. Date estimated due to limited public schedule disclosure.
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%
Seasonal demand and commodity/input cost pressure into spring peak
2026-05-14
Spring landscaping season concentrates revenue; adverse weather or input-cost inflation can compress margins and prompt downside revisions [#SERP-1], [#SERP-7]. Date estimated for pre-peak risk window.
Prob 40% • Move -12% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Execution of margin and supply-chain initiatives
2027-02-13
Multi-quarter improvement from procurement/sourcing and network optimization could expand margins and justify higher multiple; outcome depends on execution and sustained end-market demand [#SERP-4], [#SERP-6]. Expected-date is a conservative one-year horizon.
Prob 60% • Move 18% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Execution risk on distribution/synergy initiatives
Input-cost inflation and freight/sourcing disruptions
Volume sensitivity to weather-driven seasonal demand

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FAST	Fastenal — industrial/distribution peer; useful comparator for distribution efficiency and working-capital trends.
GWW	W.W. Grainger — large-scale MRO/distributor providing a margin and cyclical-demand benchmark.
HD	Home Depot — retail/wholesale exposure to residential and professional landscaping demand; helpful for seasonal demand signals.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc Common (SITE) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-13

AI Stock Memo: SITE - SiteOne Landscape Supply - RankAlpha