SITE

AI Memo

SiteOne Landscape Supply

As of 2026-10-08/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-10-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

October 28 third-quarter results • 2026-10-28

Base target: $92 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Q2 organic daily sales rose only 1% and relied partly on pricing while new residential construction and repair-and-upgrade demand remained soft. Higher freight, fuel and distribution costs could erode margin gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company release.

Invalidation

Break below $67 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q2 sales and adjusted EBITDA each grew 5%, gross margin expanded, and acquisitions contributed 3% to sales growth. Delivery against the maintained 2026 outlook despite weak end markets could warrant a higher price. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company release.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-10-08

Base target

$92

p=50%

Bull target

$112

p=25%

Bear target

$67

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Pricing and commercial initiatives
Nursery acquisition integration
Q2 sales and adjusted EBITDA each grew 5%, gross margin expanded, and acquisitions contributed 3% to sales growth.

BearKey bullets

Acquisition integration and the approximately $4 million–$5 million adjusted-EBITDA headwind from the extra fiscal week add execution risk.
[#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company release.
Freight, distribution and fuel costs, commodity deflation, and limited organic volume growth could pressure margins.

WatchKey bullets

October 28 third-quarter results

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $92 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +22% / -27%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $112 (p=25%)Base Target: $92 (p=50%)Bear Target: $67 (p=25%)

Commentary

The October 7 earnings-date announcement creates a clear near-term checkpoint, not evidence of improved demand. The $86.36 packet anchor is below the CEO's August open-market purchase prices; those Form 4 purchases indicate insider activity, not operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-06] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-28] Social, options, short-interest, employee and verified analyst-revision readings are unavailable; zero-valued fields are placeholders, not measured neutral readings.

As of 2026-10-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Pricing and commercial initiatives
Nursery acquisition integration

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$112 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$92 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$67 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-10-28
October 28 third-quarter results
SiteOne has scheduled its Q3 release and call for October 28. The key test is whether organic daily sales and margins remain consistent with its full-year outlook of flat-to-1% organic daily sales growth and $425 million–$455 million of adjusted EBITDA. [#IR-2026-10-07] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company announcement; Q2 release.
Prob 55.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Pricing and commercial initiatives
2026-12-31
Q2 gross margin rose 50 basis points to 36.9% on price realization and commercial initiatives, while higher freight costs and weak volume offset some gains. Sustained margin improvement despite soft residential demand would support the earnings case. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company release.
Prob 58% • Move 12% • Priced-in 40%
Nursery acquisition integration
2027-10-08
Devil Mountain acquired Patterson Nursery Sales in August, extending SiteOne's nursery distribution reach. Integration and profitable acquired-sales growth are potential longer-term drivers, but no transaction economics were disclosed in the announcement. [#IR-2026-08-04] Company announcement.
Prob 55% • Move 9% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Acquisition integration and the approximately $4 million–$5 million adjusted-EBITDA headwind from the extra fiscal week add execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company release.
Freight, distribution and fuel costs, commodity deflation, and limited organic volume growth could pressure margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company release.
Management estimated new residential construction down high-single digits and repair-and-upgrade demand down mid-single digits, with those trends expected to persist through 2026. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] Company release.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HD	SiteOne's 2025 10-K names Home Depot subsidiary Heritage Landscape Supply Group as a competitor. HD is much broader than SiteOne and is not a clean valuation peer. [#10-K-2026-02-19] SEC filing.
POOL	The closest identified public operating overlap: SiteOne's 2025 10-K names POOL subsidiary Horizon Distributors among landscape-supply competitors. POOL's broader pool-products business limits valuation comparability. [#10-K-2026-02-19] SEC filing.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-10-08

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Symbol

Summary

SiteOne's 2025 10-K names Home Depot subsidiary Heritage Landscape Supply Group as a competitor. HD is much broader than SiteOne and is not a clean valuation peer. [#10-K-2026-02-19] SEC filing.

POOL

The closest identified public operating overlap: SiteOne's 2025 10-K names POOL subsidiary Horizon Distributors among landscape-supply competitors. POOL's broader pool-products business limits valuation comparability. [#10-K-2026-02-19] SEC filing.