HD

Rating buyAI Memo

Home Depot

As of 2026-01-23/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly results and guidance • 2026-04-23

Expected move: +27%

Biggest risk

Prolonged DIY weakness, margin pressure from cost inflation, or weaker guidance forces multiple compression toward lower analyst estimates.

Invalidation

Break below $320 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Resilient comps, stronger pro demand, inventory discipline, and continued buybacks drive multiple expansion toward analyst highs.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-23

Base target

$402

p=60%

Bull target

$488

p=20%

Bear target

$320

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Spring DIY demand pickup
Capital return announcement
Pro-channel expansion & supply-chain gains

BearKey bullets

Inventory or execution failures during peak seasons
Macro shock or higher rates depressing retail traffic
Margin compression from cost inflation

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly results and guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $402 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +54% / +1%

Vs latest close: Bull +54% · Base +27% · Bear +1%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $488 (p=20%)Base Target: $402 (p=60%)Bear Target: $320 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus median sits above the anchor with wide high/low dispersion, signaling mixed conviction. Near-term sentiment will track quarterly execution and spring demand read-throughs [#SERP-1], [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-01-23 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Resilient comps, stronger pro demand, inventory discipline, and continued buybacks drive multiple expansion toward analyst highs.

Bear Case

Prolonged DIY weakness, margin pressure from cost inflation, or weaker guidance forces multiple compression toward lower analyst estimates.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Spring DIY demand pickup
Capital return announcement
Pro-channel expansion & supply-chain gains

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-23Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$402.14

Range (USD)

$295.00 - $488.25

Count

Query: Home Depot Inc Common (HD) analyst consensus price target high low average

Home Depot (HD) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #1
The average price target is $405.44 with a high forecast of $441.00 and a low forecast of $320.00. The average price target represents a 6.65% change from the ...
Extracted: $405.44, $441.00, $320.00Open source
HD | Home Depot Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $450.00. Median, $406.00. Low, $330.00. Average, $400.49. Current Price, $384.64. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. HD will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $450.00, $406.00, $330.00, $400.49, $384.64Open source
Home Depot (HD) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #3
According to projections from 33 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Home Depot is 394.12, with a high estimate of 450 and a low estimate of 320 ...
Open source
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #4
Earnings Estimate ; Avg. Estimate, 2.53, 3.63 ; Low Estimate, 2.41, 3.5 ; High Estimate, 2.86, 3.84 ; Year Ago EPS, 3.02, 3.56 ...
Open source
HD / The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ... - Fintel
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for The Home Depot, Inc. is $406.19. The forecasts range from a low of $297.95 to a high of $488.25. A stock's price target ...
Extracted: $406.19, $297.95, $488.25Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Home Depot (HD)
Search result #6
The forecasts range from a low of $295.00 to a high of $450.00. The average price target represents an increase of 3.14% from the last closing price of $384.64.
Extracted: $295.00, $450.00, $384.64Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$488 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$402 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$320 / p=20% prob

Price $318 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +54% · Base +27% · Bear +1%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-23
Quarterly results and guidance
Next quarter's sales, margins and guidance revisions could reprice expectations; analyst targets may be updated after the release [#SERP-2], [#SERP-5].
Prob 60.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Spring DIY demand pickup
2026-04-23
Seasonal spring demand typically lifts comps and margins; market notes expect modest near-term upside [#SERP-1], [#SERP-2].
Prob 55% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%
Capital return announcement
2026-04-23
Buyback/dividend updates support the share floor; acceleration or pause can drive short-term moves [#SERP-8].
Prob 50% • Move 4% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Pro-channel expansion & supply-chain gains
2027-01-23
Sustained pro-channel growth and supply-chain efficiency would expand margins and valuation over a 12+ month horizon [#SERP-1], [#SERP-5].
Prob 30% • Move 20% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Inventory or execution failures during peak seasons
Macro shock or higher rates depressing retail traffic
Margin compression from cost inflation
Sustained weakness in DIY/pro spending

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LOW	Direct big-box home-improvement rival with similar pro/DIY exposure.
FND	Specialty home-improvement peer with faster category growth; useful comparator for margin upside.
ORLY	Large retail franchise with strong pro/customer loyalty—operational comparator for execution and assortment.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Home Depot Inc Common (HD) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-23

AI Stock Memo: HD - Home Depot - RankAlpha