AI Stock Memo: FND - Floor Decor - RankAlpha

FND

AI Memo

Floor Decor

As of 2026-01-13/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst Re-rating after Margin/Store Productivity Improvements • 2026-04-13

Expected move: +52%

Biggest risk

Bear case centers on a housing slowdown, inventory write-downs, or margin compression from freight/commodity pressure leading to rolling downgrades and compressed multiples.

Invalidation

Break below $55 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes accelerating comps, sustained margin expansion, and multiple re-rating toward premium home-improvement peer valuations driven by strong store productivity and market share gains.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-13

Base target

$77

p=60%

Bull target

$110

p=20%

Bear target

$55

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2025 / Q4 Earnings and Guidance Update
Housing / Remodeling Demand Recovery
Bull case assumes accelerating comps, sustained margin expansion, and multiple re-rating toward premium home-improvement peer valuations driven by strong store productivity and market share gains.

BearKey bullets

Intensifying competition from big-box and online channels
Inventory and working capital write-downs from poor assortment forecasting
Margin pressure from commodity/freight inflation

WatchKey bullets

Analyst Re-rating after Margin/Store Productivity Improvements

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $77 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +118% / +9%

Vs latest close: Bull +118% · Base +52% · Bear +9%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $110 (p=20%)Base Target: $77 (p=60%)Bear Target: $55 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is mixed-to-cautious: analyst medians sit close to the current price, indicating limited consensus upside but a wide dispersion of outcomes [#SERP-3]. Recent aggregates show some bullish outliers balanced by low-end estimates, producing a neutral headline tone heading into results [#SERP-1], [#SERP-9].

As of 2026-01-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes accelerating comps, sustained margin expansion, and multiple re-rating toward premium home-improvement peer valuations driven by strong store productivity and market share gains.

Bear Case

Bear case centers on a housing slowdown, inventory write-downs, or margin compression from freight/commodity pressure leading to rolling downgrades and compressed multiples.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2025 / Q4 Earnings and Guidance Update
Housing / Remodeling Demand Recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$79.35

Range (USD)

$55.11 - $135.00

Count

Query: Floor & Decor Holdings Inc Class A Common (FND) analyst consensus price target high low average

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Floor & Decor Holdings Inc has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $63.000000; an Industry Subrating of Low; a Management Subrating of Medium; a ...
Extracted: $63.00Open source
Floor & Decor Holdings Inc (FND) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 22 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Floor & Decor is 77.81818, with a high estimate of 92 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. Cl A Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $90.00. Median, $75.50. Low, $57.78. Average, $76.58. Current Price, $72.74. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. FND will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $90.00, $75.50, $57.78, $76.58, $72.74Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Floor & Decor (FND)
Search result #4
The forecasts for Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) range from a low of $58 to a high of $90. The average price target represents a increase of $7.16 from the ...
Extracted: $58.00, $90.00, $7.16Open source
FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS INC-A (FND) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #5
Analysts have set a mean price target forecast of 79.35. This target is 9.09% above the current price. FND was analyzed by 28 analysts.
Open source
Floor & Decor Holdings Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy FND?
Search result #6
The 52-week high for Floor & Decor Holdings Inc Stock is $108.76 and the 52-week low is $55.11.
Extracted: $108.76, $55.11Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$110 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$77 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$55 / p=20% prob

Price $51 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +118% · Base +52% · Bear +9%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-13
Analyst Re-rating after Margin/Store Productivity Improvements
If the company demonstrates margin expansion and improved same-store productivity, sell-side targets could re-rate higher (high/low analyst dispersion noted); assumed event window end used for planning [#SERP-8], [#SERP-1].
Prob 50.00% • Move 22.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2025 / Q4 Earnings and Guidance Update
2026-04-13
Company will report FY2025/Q4 results and likely update FY26 guidance; consensus median/average analyst targets cluster near the current price, implying limited upside but material volatility on beats/misses [#SERP-3], [#SERP-2].
Prob 75% • Move 18% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Housing / Remodeling Demand Recovery
2027-01-13
Sustained improvement in U.S. housing turnover and DIY/remodeling activity could materially lift sales and margins over 12+ months; consensus target averages reflect a distribution of outcomes [#SERP-2], [#SERP-9].
Prob 35% • Move 45% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Intensifying competition from big-box and online channels
Inventory and working capital write-downs from poor assortment forecasting
Margin pressure from commodity/freight inflation
U.S. housing slowdown reducing remodeling spend

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HD	The Home Depot — large-format home-improvement leader; serves both DIY and professional channels, useful comp for merchandising and pro exposure.
LOW	Lowe's Companies — national home-improvement retailer with overlapping end markets and scale dynamics.
MHK	Mohawk Industries — flooring manufacturer and distributor; provides perspective on raw-material and product-demand trends affecting margins.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Floor & Decor Holdings Inc Class A Common (FND) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-13