AI Stock Memo: LKQ - LKQ - RankAlpha

LKQ

Rating buyAI Memo

LKQ

As of 2026-02-20/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release • 2026-05-21

Expected move: +49%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes softer OEM/aftermarket volumes, margin pressure from commodity and freight costs, and multiple compression back toward cyclical troughs around analyst low near $33.

Invalidation

Break below $33 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes accelerated organic demand, successful margin realization from synergies and multiple expansion toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the $60 area within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-20

Base target

$41

p=60%

Bull target

$60

p=20%

Bear target

$33

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term OEM & aftermarket demand recovery
Margin expansion from cost levers & M&A synergies
Bull case assumes accelerated organic demand, successful margin realization from synergies and multiple expansion toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the $60 area within 12 months.

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on acquisitions and integrations
Faster EV adoption reducing ICE parts demand
Margin pressure from commodity/freight inflation

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $41 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +121% / +22%

Vs latest close: Bull +121% · Base +49% · Bear +22%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $60 (p=20%)Base Target: $41 (p=60%)Bear Target: $33 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market commentary is cautiously constructive: analyst medians sit above the current anchor, implying upside consensus [#SERP-1][#SERP-2]. Commentary centers on cyclicality of parts demand and the potential for margin improvement via scale and synergies [#SERP-6]. Short-term sentiment will likely hinge on upcoming quarterly results and guidance [#SERP-7].

As of 2026-02-20 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes accelerated organic demand, successful margin realization from synergies and multiple expansion toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the $60 area within 12 months.

Bear Case

Bear case assumes softer OEM/aftermarket volumes, margin pressure from commodity and freight costs, and multiple compression back toward cyclical troughs around analyst low near $33.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term OEM & aftermarket demand recovery
Margin expansion from cost levers & M&A synergies

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-20Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$40.50

Range (USD)

$33.00 - $60.00

Count

Query: LKQ Corp Common (LKQ) analyst consensus price target high low average

LKQ (LKQ) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 8 analysts, the average 12-month price target for LKQ is 41.19, with a high estimate of 50 and a low estimate of 33. What ...
Open source
LKQ Stock Forecast - Price Targets
Search result #2
The average price target is $39.38 with a high forecast of $43.00 and a low forecast of $33.00. The average price target represents a 15.48% change from the ...
Extracted: $39.38, $43.00, $33.00Open source
LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
Analyst Insights: LKQ. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 34.00. 40.69 Average ... Price Target 39. View More. Statistics: LKQ. View More. Valuation Measures.
Open source
LKQ (LKQ) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2025
Search result #4
The highest price target for LKQ is $60.00, while the lowest price target for LKQ is $33.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 32.26% ...
Extracted: $60.00, $33.00Open source
Stock Forecast & Analyst Ratings - LKQ Corporation - MLQ.ai
Search result #5
The highest price target is $43.00, while the lowest is $33.00. Compared to the current price of $33.99, this represents a potential 14.8% upside .
Extracted: $43.00, $33.00, $33.99Open source
LKQ CORP (LKQ) Stock Price, Forecast & Analysis - ChartMill
Search result #6
15 analysts have analysed LKQ and the average price target is 42.8 USD. This implies a price increase of 28.83% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $42.80Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=20% prob

Price $27 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 22%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +121% · Base +49% · Bear +22%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-21
Next quarterly earnings release
Scheduled quarterly results; a material beat or miss will likely re-rate shares versus analyst targets and could drive near-term 10–30% moves [#SERP-1]. Date estimated conservatively (assumed quarter-end release) [#SERP-7].
Prob 100.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term OEM & aftermarket demand recovery
2026-05-21
Improvement in used-car miles and parts demand could lift organic revenue in the next 3–6 months; analysts already price upside in median targets ~40–42 [#SERP-6][#SERP-2].
Prob 40% • Move 15% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Margin expansion from cost levers & M&A synergies
2027-02-20
Over a 12‑month horizon, sustained margin improvement from integration and pricing could re-rate multiples toward analyst highs; scenario upside matches the higher analyst band [#SERP-4][#SERP-9].
Prob 50% • Move 40% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Execution risk on acquisitions and integrations
Faster EV adoption reducing ICE parts demand
Margin pressure from commodity/freight inflation
Weaker-than-expected OEM and aftermarket volumes

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AZO	Auto parts retailer with stronger gross margins; useful comparandum for margin gap and aftermarket exposure.
ORLY	High-quality aftermarket franchisor; represents premium multiple for stable organic growth.
AAP	Direct retail peer focused on U.S. retail footprint and promotional dynamics; cyclical demand sensitivity.
GPC	Distributor exposure with diversified end-markets; balance-sheet and dividend profile contrast with LKQ.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: LKQ Corp Common (LKQ) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-20