SAIC

Rating neutralAI Memo

Science Applications International

As of 2026-10-14/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

CFO transition takes effect December 7 • 2026-12-07

Base target: $140 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Quarterly book-to-bill of 0.6 and trailing-12-month book-to-bill of 0.8 weaken visibility despite the large backlog. Adjusted EBITDA margin eased to 10.3% from 10.5%, and free cash flow fell year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31]

Invalidation

Break below $112 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q2 organic growth and higher fiscal 2027 guidance support the possibility of sustained contract ramp-ups. A Zacks recap in the packet reported adjusted EPS of $3.01 versus its $2.25 consensus estimate, but the more important forward test is bookings conversion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31]

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-10-14

Base target

$140

p=50%

Bull target

$155

p=30%

Bear target

$112

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Raised FY27 outlook faces a bookings test
Backlog conversion and cash generation
Q2 organic growth and higher fiscal 2027 guidance support the possibility of sustained contract ramp-ups.

BearKey bullets

Bookings below revenue could erode backlog and growth visibility if the pattern persists.
[#SEC-8K-2026-08-31]
Free cash flow declined 13% year over year in Q2 despite higher operating cash flow.

WatchKey bullets

CFO transition takes effect December 7

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $140 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +11% / -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $155 (p=30%)Base Target: $140 (p=50%)Bear Target: $112 (p=20%)

Commentary

The company release supports a better outlook, tempered by weak bookings. A September 30 Zacks recap said shares had risen about 1.1% since the earnings report; that is not an immediate post-release reaction. The October 13 CFO appointment is confirmed but has no demonstrated financial effect. Verified post-print analyst revisions, options, short-interest and employee-sentiment measures are unavailable; the zero entries above denote unavailable data, not observed neutral readings. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31] [#8-K-2026-10-13]

As of 2026-10-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Raised FY27 outlook faces a bookings test
Backlog conversion and cash generation

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$155 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$140 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$112 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-07
CFO transition takes effect December 7
SAIC appointed Ken Crews as CFO effective December 7, 2026; incumbent CFO Prabu Natarajan is moving to lead the Civilian Business Group. The appointment is confirmed, but any effect on forecasts or execution remains unproven. [#8-K-2026-10-13] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571123/000119312526420441/d156029d8k.htm
Prob 95.00% • Move 1.00% • Priced-in 85.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Raised FY27 outlook faces a bookings test
2026-12-31
SAIC raised fiscal 2027 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance after Q2 revenue grew 6.3%, including 5.3% organic growth. Quarterly book-to-bill was only 0.6, so subsequent bookings and contract ramp-ups must support the stronger outlook. The date is a monitoring horizon, not a confirmed earnings date. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571123/000157112326000131/saic08312026ex991earningsr.htm
Prob 63% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Backlog conversion and cash generation
2027-01-30
SAIC reported approximately $22.1 billion of backlog, of which $3.8 billion was funded. Fiscal 2027 free-cash-flow guidance was reiterated, while Q2 free cash flow fell 13% year over year to $131 million. Conversion into funded work and durable cash generation remain the longer-term tests; the date is a monitoring horizon. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571123/000157112326000131/saic08312026ex991earningsr.htm
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Bookings below revenue could erode backlog and growth visibility if the pattern persists. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31]
Free cash flow declined 13% year over year in Q2 despite higher operating cash flow. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31]
Higher selling, general and administrative expense weighed on adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-31]
The CFO transition introduces an execution item to monitor, not evidence of an operating change. [#8-K-2026-10-13]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AMTM	Government-services business-model reference retained from the prior baseline. No verified peer valuation or operating comparison is available.
G	Supplied sector and market-cap candidate, but its service mix is not a direct government-contracting comparison; no relative-value conclusion is warranted.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-10-14

Loading AI feed…

Symbol

Summary

AMTM

Government-services business-model reference retained from the prior baseline. No verified peer valuation or operating comparison is available.

Supplied sector and market-cap candidate, but its service mix is not a direct government-contracting comparison; no relative-value conclusion is warranted.