AI Stock Memo: AMTM - Amentum - RankAlpha

AMTM

Rating buyAI Memo

Amentum

As of 2026-02-10/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Major contract awards / backlog disclosures • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +55%

Biggest risk

Award slippage, program delays, or margin pressure weaken backlog conversion and compress multiples toward the analyst low, leaving shares below the anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $30 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained award momentum and tighter execution expand margins and free-cash conversion above consensus, enabling multiple expansion toward the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-10

Base target

$36

p=60%

Bull target

$44

p=20%

Bear target

$30

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY26 quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Updated margin / synergy guidance
Realization of long-term contract synergies and backlog conversion

BearKey bullets

Adverse government budget shifts or procurement pauses
Large contract award delays or cancellations
Sustained margin contraction from cost growth

WatchKey bullets

Major contract awards / backlog disclosures

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $36 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +91% / +30%

Vs latest close: Bull +91% · Base +55% · Bear +30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $44 (p=20%)Base Target: $36 (p=60%)Bear Target: $30 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautiously positive: analysts cluster in the mid‑$30s with a Buy tilt. Near-term focus is on upcoming results and award timing; longer-term outlook depends on margin recovery and backlog conversion.

As of 2026-02-10 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained award momentum and tighter execution expand margins and free-cash conversion above consensus, enabling multiple expansion toward the bull target.

Bear Case

Award slippage, program delays, or margin pressure weaken backlog conversion and compress multiples toward the analyst low, leaving shares below the anchor.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY26 quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Updated margin / synergy guidance
Realization of long-term contract synergies and backlog conversion

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-10Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$35.78

Range (USD)

$30.00 - $44.10

Count

Query: Amentum Holdings Inc Common (AMTM) analyst consensus price target high low average

Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Q1. FY26. 0. 1B. 2B. 3B. View more. Analyst Insights: AMTM. View more. Analyst Price Targets. 30.00 Low. 36.18 Average. 36.59 Current. 42.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Amentum Holdings LLC (AMTM) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 11 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Amentum Holdings LLC is 36.18, with a high estimate of 42 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
AMTM Stock Forecast - Amentum Holdings Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMTM is 36.905 USD with a low forecast of 30.3 USD and a high forecast of 44.1 USD.
Extracted: $36.91, $30.30, $44.10Open source
Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #4
The average price target is $35.75 with a high forecast of $40.00 and a low forecast of $30.00. The average price target represents a -4.74% change from the ...
Extracted: $35.75, $40.00, $30.00Open source
Amentum (AMTM) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #5
According to the 14 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Amentum, the average price target is $34.50. The highest price target for AMTM is $42.00, while the ...
Extracted: $34.50, $42.00Open source
Amentum Holdings Inc. Analyst Estimates - AMTM - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Amentum Holdings Inc. analyst estimates, including AMTM earnings per share ... Stock Price Targets. High, $42.00. Median, $35.00. Low, $30.00. Average, $36.18.
Extracted: $42.00, $35.00, $30.00, $36.18Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=20% prob

Price $23 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 30%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +91% · Base +55% · Bear +30%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Major contract awards / backlog disclosures
Large DoD and civilian awards can materially change backlog and forward revenue; awards and consensus targets tracked on analyst aggregator pages [#SERP-2], assumed window end for planning.
Prob 45.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY26 quarterly earnings release (estimated)
2026-05-11
Quarterly results and guidance update that will drive near-term revenue/margin readthrough; market consensus and aggregator pages track 12-month outlook [#SERP-6].
Prob 65% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%
Updated margin / synergy guidance
2026-05-11
Management commentary on margins, cost saves, and integration progress that can re-rate multiple; watch guidance language vs. consensus [#SERP-1].
Prob 50% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Realization of long-term contract synergies and backlog conversion
2027-02-10
Multi-quarter realization of program-level synergies and higher-margin work mix that materially affects 12+ month valuation; long horizon assumed for realization [#SERP-3].
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Adverse government budget shifts or procurement pauses
Large contract award delays or cancellations
Sustained margin contraction from cost growth

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LDOS	Leidos — comparable large federal services exposure and program backlog dynamics.
BAH	Booz Allen — commercial/DoD advisory and systems integration peer with similar demand drivers.
CACI	CACI — mission IT and intelligence services peer; similar contract profile and GWACS exposure.
SAIC	SAIC — systems integration and services peer with overlapping customer base and program timing risk.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Amentum Holdings Inc Common (AMTM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-10