B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMTM
AmentumCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 6% and free cash flow rose 35% year over year despite lower revenue. If backlog converts while margins hold, earnings and cash generation could improve.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
What can break
Backlog may convert more slowly than expected, particularly as contracts transition to unconsolidated joint ventures. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Momentum
24
Value
64
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.00 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $13.00Analysis 2026-10-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.33
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d +1.4
Value64 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -10.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog may convert more slowly than expected, particularly as contracts transition to unconsolidated joint ventures. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
- • Gross debt was $3.875 billion against $459 million of cash at July 3, 2026. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
- • The lower revenue outlook, a 5% decline in Global Engineering Solutions revenue, and contract transitions could outweigh margin gains.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
FY2026 guidance delivery
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+3.4
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.1
Δ21d
-35.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 24.0 / Value 63.8 / Sentiment 45.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.32B
Beta
-
Shares Out
244.51M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
80.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
11.24
Rev YoY
-2.0%
EPS YoY
+553.9%
Gross Margin
+7.4%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$3.73B
Current Ratio
1.52
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data