B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMTM
AmentumANYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong Q3 adjusted EBITDA, margin expansion, EPS growth, free cash flow, backlog, and earlier-than-expected net-leverage reduction support a constructive medium-term case. Strategic exposure to nuclear, space, national security, and critical digital infrastructure adds potential upside if backlog converts effectively.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
What can break
Backlog and bookings may not convert on schedule if government award cycles remain slow.
Momentum
10
Value
65
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $16.50Analysis 2026-08-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.58
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d +1.3
Value65 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog and bookings may not convert on schedule if government award cycles remain slow.
- • FY2026 revenue guidance was reduced and near-term growth is exposed to protest delays, procurement delays, and lower materials volume.
- • The revenue outlook was reduced because of protest delays, lower materials volume, procurement friction, NASA insourcing, and planned low-margin program exits.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-10
Q3 profitability beat supports revised FY2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-11.2
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+8.0
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
-23.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 9.8 / Value 64.7 / Sentiment 80.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5B
Beta
-
Shares Out
244.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
75.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
10.56
Rev YoY
-2.0%
EPS YoY
+553.9%
Gross Margin
+7.4%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$3.73B
Current Ratio
1.52
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data