AI Stock Memo: RYN - Rayonier - RankAlpha

RYN

Rating buyAI Memo

Rayonier

As of 2026-01-10/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings release and guidance update • 2026-04-10

Expected move: +29%

Biggest risk

Bear case: prolonged weakness in timber/lumber prices, rising cost of capital, or dividend cuts compresses yields and drives the stock below prior trading ranges.

Invalidation

Break below $20 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: timber prices recover, higher lumber/land sale realizations and steady distributions drive multiple expansion and NAV re-rating toward the high‑teens/low‑30s per consensus; execution on strategic dispositions accelerates.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-10

Base target

$28

p=60%

Bull target

$33

p=20%

Bear target

$20

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly dividend declaration / distribution level
Timberland portfolio sales or strategic dispositions
Bull case: timber prices recover, higher lumber/land sale realizations and steady distributions drive multiple expansion and NAV re-rating toward the high‑teens/low‑30s per consensus; execution on strategic dispositions accelerates.

BearKey bullets

Dividend pressure from weaker cash flow
Execution failures or timing mismatch on land sales
Higher interest rates raising discount rates

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release and guidance update

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $28 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +54% / -6%

Vs latest close: Bull +54% · Base +29% · Bear -6%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $33 (p=20%)Base Target: $28 (p=60%)Bear Target: $20 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus skews modestly positive with mid‑20s one‑year targets commonly cited; upside tied to NAV realization while analysts flag timber-price and rate sensitivity [#SERP-2] [#SERP-3]. Overall tone: cautiously constructive.

As of 2026-01-10 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case: prolonged weakness in timber/lumber prices, rising cost of capital, or dividend cuts compresses yields and drives the stock below prior trading ranges.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly dividend declaration / distribution level
Timberland portfolio sales or strategic dispositions

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-10Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$27.00

Range (USD)

$21.06 - $38.85

Count

Query: Rayonier Inc Common (RYN) analyst consensus price target high low average

What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Rayonier (RYN)
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $24.00 to a high of $33.00. The average price target represents an increase of 25.11% from the last closing price of $21.74.
Extracted: $24.00, $33.00, $21.74Open source
Wall Street Analysts Believe Rayonier (RYN) Could Rally 25.87%
Search result #2
The mean price target of $27.2 indicates a 25.9% upside potential. The average comprises five short-term price targets ranging from a low of ...
Extracted: $27.20Open source5 days ago
Rayonier Inc. REIT (RYN) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The average price target is $27.50 with a high forecast of $33.00 and a low forecast of $24.00. The average price target represents a 27.26% change from the ...
Extracted: $27.50, $33.00, $24.00Open source
Rayonier Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 6 ; Last Close Price. 21.82USD ; Average target price. 27.50USD ; Spread / Average Target. +26.03%.
Extracted: $21.82, $27.50Open source
RYN / Rayonier Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target, Estimates ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Rayonier Inc. is $30.26. The forecasts range from a low of $24.24 to a high of $38.85. Read More.
Extracted: $30.26, $24.24, $38.85Open source
Rayonier Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy RYN? - StockInvest.us
Search result #6
The 52-week high for Rayonier Inc Stock is $28.31 and the 52-week low is $21.06.
Extracted: $28.31, $21.06Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=20% prob

Price $21 as of 2026-07-30

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +54% · Base +29% · Bear -6%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-10
Quarterly earnings release and guidance update
Q4/2025 (period) results and any updated guidance can move the share price; assumed reporting window not explicitly disclosed so date set conservatively to estimate window end [assumption].
Prob 100.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly dividend declaration / distribution level
2026-04-10
Announcement or adjustment to the regular distribution can affect yield-seeking flows and short-term demand; date conservatively estimated for the next typical quarterly cadence.
Prob 80% • Move 3% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Timberland portfolio sales or strategic dispositions
2027-01-10
Larger portfolio transactions or balance-sheet reshaping (land sales, joint ventures) could re-rate NAV; timing uncertain so set conservative 1-year horizon.
Prob 30% • Move 15% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Dividend pressure from weaker cash flow
Execution failures or timing mismatch on land sales
Higher interest rates raising discount rates
Regulatory limits on harvest volumes
Timber/lumber price decline

Peers

Symbol	Summary
WY	Weyerhaeuser — large-cap timber REIT with similar exposure to timber prices and housing demand; useful industry comparandum.
PCH	PotlatchDeltic — regional timberland REIT with comparable cash-flow sensitivity to log prices and land sales execution.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Rayonier Inc Common (RYN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-10