AI Stock Memo: EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust - RankAlpha

EPRT

Rating buyAI Memo

Essential Properties Realty Trust

As of 2026-02-06/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates • 2026-08-06

Expected move: +13%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected FFO, tenant stress or cap-rate expansion, causing downside below current levels as investors re-price dividend reliability and growth prospects.

Invalidation

Break below $27 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes continued accretive acquisitions, steady same-store NOI growth, upward analyst revisions toward the high-$30s/low-$40s consensus, and stable payout coverage leading to re-rating.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-06

Base target

$35

p=60%

Bull target

$40

p=25%

Bear target

$27

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly FFO / earnings release
Portfolio growth / accretive acquisitions
Bull case assumes continued accretive acquisitions, steady same-store NOI growth, upward analyst revisions toward the high-$30s/low-$40s consensus, and stable payout coverage leading to re-rating.

BearKey bullets

Concentration risk from large tenants or property types
Occupancy or tenant credit deterioration
Rising interest rates / cap-rate expansion

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $35 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +28% / -14%

Vs latest close: Bull +28% · Base +13% · Bear -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $40 (p=25%)Base Target: $35 (p=60%)Bear Target: $27 (p=15%)

Commentary

Market consensus shows modestly favorable analyst sentiment with median targets in the mid-$30s and highs near $40, implying cautious optimism [#SERP-3][#SERP-1]. Recent aggregator snapshots portray a 'Buy' tilt from analysts while noting a spread of views from low-$30s to $40 [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-02-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes continued accretive acquisitions, steady same-store NOI growth, upward analyst revisions toward the high-$30s/low-$40s consensus, and stable payout coverage leading to re-rating.

Bear Case

Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected FFO, tenant stress or cap-rate expansion, causing downside below current levels as investors re-price dividend reliability and growth prospects.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly FFO / earnings release
Portfolio growth / accretive acquisitions

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-06Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$35.34

Range (USD)

$30.06 - $40.00

Count

Query: Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc Common (EPRT) analyst consensus price target high low average

Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
The highest price target for EPRT is $38.00, while the lowest price target for EPRT is $33.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 14.70% ...
Extracted: $38.00, $33.00Open source
EPRT Stock Forecast - Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc
Search result #2
EPRT Price Targets Summary. Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc ; EPRT Lowest Forecast · 32.32 · 6% Upside ; EPRT Average Forecast · 36.72 · 21% Upside ; EPRT ...
Open source
Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc (EPRT) Stock Forecast, Price ...
Search result #3
The average price target is $35.63 with a high forecast of $38.00 and a low forecast of $33.00. The average price target represents a 17.36% change from the ...
Extracted: $35.63, $38.00, $33.00Open source
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #4
Q2. FY25. Q3. FY25. 0. 50M. 100M. View More. Analyst Insights: EPRT. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 33.00. 36.00 Average. 32.08 Current. 40.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Essential Properties (EPRT) Price Targets
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $33.00 to a high of $40.00. The average price target represents an increase of 18.18% from the last closing price of $30.42.
Extracted: $33.00, $40.00, $30.42Open source
Consensus Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #6
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 20 ; Last Close Price. 30.06USD ; Average target price. 36.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. +19.76%.
Extracted: $30.06, $36.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=15% prob

Price $31 as of 2026-07-15

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +28% · Base +13% · Bear -14%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-06
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Analyst reviews and consensus target updates (driven by results or guidance) can re-rate the stock; date is an estimated window end (assumption: consensus updates by mid-2026) [#SERP-3][#SERP-7].
Prob 30.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly FFO / earnings release
2026-05-07
Upcoming quarterly FFO and earnings release; outcomes (FFO beat or miss) typically move REIT shares and dividend perceptions. Date estimated conservatively (no public date disclosed) [#SERP-6].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Portfolio growth / accretive acquisitions
2027-02-06
Continued property acquisitions and accretive leasing could raise NAV and analyst targets over the next year; market consensus price targets show upside that would reflect successful acquisitions [#SERP-1][#SERP-5].
Prob 40% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Concentration risk from large tenants or property types
Occupancy or tenant credit deterioration
Rising interest rates / cap-rate expansion

Peers

Symbol	Summary
O	Large, diversified monthly-pay REIT with stable retail net-lease profile; useful comp for defensive income positioning.
NNN	Single-tenant net-lease REIT with strong tenant diversification; comparable exposure to retail/net-lease dynamics.
ADC	Retail-focused REIT with similar focus on long-term leases and distribution stability; helpful for occupancy and rent-reset context.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc Common (EPRT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-06