ADC

Rating buyAI Memo

Agree Realty

As of 2026-02-06/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 Earnings Release (assumed date) • 2026-05-07

Expected move: +9%

Biggest risk

Rising rates, weaker tenant demand, or adverse refinancing conditions compress multiples and dividends, pushing shares toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $72 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Continued dividend growth, accretive acquisitions and modest cap-rate compression support multiple expansion toward the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-06

Base target

$81

p=55%

Bull target

$88

p=25%

Bear target

$72

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Dividend policy / payout update
Macro-driven valuation re-pricing
Continued dividend growth, accretive acquisitions and modest cap-rate compression support multiple expansion toward the bull target.

BearKey bullets

Financing/refinancing stress on acquisitions
Interest-rate sensitivity / cap-rate expansion
Retail tenant distress or lease-roll weakness

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 Earnings Release (assumed date)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $81 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +19% / -3%

Vs latest close: Bull +19% · Base +9% · Bear -3%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $88 (p=25%)Base Target: $81 (p=55%)Bear Target: $72 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst consensus is cautiously constructive: median/average targets sit in the low $80s, implying modest upside from the anchor. Coverage emphasizes dividend stability and portfolio quality while noting sensitivity to rates and a wide high estimate that increases dispersion.

As of 2026-02-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Continued dividend growth, accretive acquisitions and modest cap-rate compression support multiple expansion toward the bull target.

Bear Case

Rising rates, weaker tenant demand, or adverse refinancing conditions compress multiples and dividends, pushing shares toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Dividend policy / payout update
Macro-driven valuation re-pricing

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-06Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$80.66

Range (USD)

$72.23 - $185.70

Count

Query: Agree Realty Corp Common (ADC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Agree Realty (ADC) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 18 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Agree Realty is 81.58, with a high estimate of 91 and a low estimate of 75.
Open source
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Lowering target price to $80.00 ... AGREE REALTY CORP has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $80.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management ...
Extracted: $80.00Open source
Agree Realty Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 20 ; Last Close Price. 72.23USD ; Average target price. 81.58USD ; Spread / Average Target. +12.95%.
Extracted: $72.23, $81.58Open source
Agree Realty Corporation Stock Price - Perplexity
Search result #4
The company received a Hold rating from Barclays with a $78 price target, while the broader analyst consensus remains a Strong Buy with an $81.32 average ...
Extracted: $78.00, $81.32Open source
Agree Realty (ADC) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #5
The highest price target for ADC is $83.50, while the lowest price target for ADC is $75.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 8.61% ...
Extracted: $83.50, $75.00Open source
Agree Realty Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:ADC
Search result #6
Agree Realty Corp has a consensus price target of $78.09 based on the ratings of 18 analysts. The high is $88 issued by Deutsche Bank on December 11, 2024.
Extracted: $78.09, $88.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$88 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$81 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=20% prob

Price $74 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +19% · Base +9% · Bear -3%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
Q1 2026 Earnings Release (assumed date)
Quarterly results and guidance update; date estimated due to no published date. Key drivers: FFO, same-store NOI and guidance versus consensus.
Prob 70.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 60.00%
EVENT2026-12-31
Accretive acquisitions / portfolio growth
Successful accretive property purchases or JV deals can lift FFO and dividends; timing uncertain so an end-of-year planning assumption is used.
Prob 30.00% • Move 7.50% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Dividend policy / payout update
2026-05-07
Dividend confirmations or increases are core valuation drivers; market reaction depends on payout level and AFFO/dividend coverage commentary.
Prob 60% • Move 2% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Macro-driven valuation re-pricing
2027-02-06
Interest-rate paths and cap-rate moves materially affect REIT multiples; a lower-for-longer rate path supports multiple expansion, while spikes compress valuations.
Prob 40% • Move -8% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Financing/refinancing stress on acquisitions
Interest-rate sensitivity / cap-rate expansion
Retail tenant distress or lease-roll weakness

Peers

Symbol	Summary
O	Large-cap net-lease REIT; useful comparator for dividend durability and portfolio scale.
FRT	Shopping-center REIT with urban/suburban retail exposure; relevant for leasing and tenant-mix dynamics.
REG	Grocery-anchored shopping-center REIT; a defensive retail comparator for rent stability analysis.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Agree Realty Corp Common (ADC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-06

AI Stock Memo: ADC - Agree Realty - RankAlpha