RRR

AI Memo

Red Rock Resorts

As of 2026-09-26/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next results test Las Vegas margin stabilization • 2026-12-31

Base target: $51 / p=45% prob

Biggest risk

The Q2 revenue and EBITDA declines may persist while North Fork faces construction, legal or ramp delays. The 10-Q cautions that project cash flows may not repay all remaining advances [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07].

Invalidation

Break below $38 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

An on-time North Fork opening followed by fee generation, alongside stabilization in Las Vegas EBITDA, could improve the earnings outlook [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-09-26

Base target

$51

p=45%

Bull target

$63

p=25%

Bear target

$38

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Declared quarterly dividend payment
An on-time North Fork opening followed by fee generation, alongside stabilization in Las Vegas EBITDA, could improve the earnings outlook [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
At the $50.76 September 25 anchor, the packet's $73.39 median analyst target implies about 45% upside, but its target count and revision history are unavailable.

BearKey bullets

Q2 consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell 9.3% year over year, faster than the 3.0% revenue decline [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Quarter-end cash was $136.5 million against $3.6 billion of principal debt outstanding [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
The North Fork 10-Q describes active litigation challenging the project's gaming authorization and warns that completion and recovery of advances are uncertain [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07].

WatchKey bullets

Next results test Las Vegas margin stabilization

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $51 (p=45%)

Target spread vs base: +24% / -25%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $63 (p=25%)Base Target: $51 (p=45%)Bear Target: $38 (p=30%)

Commentary

Tone is cautious. A stored Zacks article reported that Q2 EPS and revenue beat its cited consensus, but shares lost about 6.8% in the following month; that reaction is not a current post-release price measure. No dependable post-print analyst revisions, social coverage, options skew, short interest or employee score were supplied. Zero sentiment-field values denote unavailable data, not neutral readings.

As of 2026-09-26 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

An on-time North Fork opening followed by fee generation, alongside stabilization in Las Vegas EBITDA, could improve the earnings outlook [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Declared quarterly dividend payment

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$63 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$51 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$38 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.25

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Next results test Las Vegas margin stabilization
Q2 2026 consolidated revenue fell 3.0% year over year to $510.3 million and adjusted EBITDA fell 9.3% to $208.0 million. A subsequent improvement in Las Vegas revenue and EBITDA would challenge the deterioration thesis; another decline would reinforce it. The date is a monitoring window, not a confirmed earnings date [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Prob 45.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-12-31
North Fork casino opening
The June 2026 10-Q estimates a fourth-quarter 2026 opening for the approximately $750 million North Fork project. Red Rock is entitled to a development fee and, under a seven-year agreement beginning at opening, a management fee equal to 30% of project net income. Completion, litigation and operating-ramp risks remain material [#10-Q-2026-08-07] [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07].
Prob 60.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Declared quarterly dividend payment
2026-09-30
The declared $0.26 Class A dividend is payable September 30. This is a known capital-return event, not evidence that operating trends have improved [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Prob 95% • Move 1% • Priced-in 95%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Q2 consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell 9.3% year over year, faster than the 3.0% revenue decline [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Quarter-end cash was $136.5 million against $3.6 billion of principal debt outstanding [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
The North Fork 10-Q describes active litigation challenging the project's gaming authorization and warns that completion and recovery of advances are uncertain [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CZR	Caesars offers a broader gaming leverage and margin comparison, but its geographic and business mix makes it a looser peer.
BYD	Boyd Gaming is a useful regional-casino operating comparison, though Red Rock's Las Vegas locals concentration and North Fork development limit direct comparability.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-26

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Symbol

Summary

CZR

Caesars offers a broader gaming leverage and margin comparison, but its geographic and business mix makes it a looser peer.

BYD

Boyd Gaming is a useful regional-casino operating comparison, though Red Rock's Las Vegas locals concentration and North Fork development limit direct comparability.