B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RRR
Red Rock ResortsANasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Las Vegas locals demand remains resilient enough to keep revenue growing, while North Fork gives RRR a tangible late-2026 expansion lever and the dividend framework supports shareholder returns.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.2.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA fell 1.2% year over year in Q1 2026 despite revenue growth, signaling limited margin cushion [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29].
Momentum
23
Value
49
Sentiment
86
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $67.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $54.00Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $73.39
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d -3.9
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment86 · Δ7d +7.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EBITDA fell 1.2% year over year in Q1 2026 despite revenue growth, signaling limited margin cushion [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29].
- • Management expects approximately $260 million to $310 million of 2026 capital expenditures, which raises execution and cash-allocation risk if project timing or returns slip [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-07].
- • The bear case is that the latest quarter already showed negative EBITDA and net-income growth despite higher revenue, so heavy debt and elevated 2026 capex could pressure free cash flow if operating trends soften.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q1 resilience plus June dividend supports near-term downside
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
23
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-30.3
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
86
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.2
Δ21d
+14.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 23.3 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 85.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$67.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.64B
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
59.13M
P/E (TTM)
19.7
P/S (TTM)
3.28
P/FCF (TTM)
30.84
Rev YoY
-3.0%
EPS YoY
-29.3%
Gross Margin
+51.4%
Op Margin
+28.6%
Net Debt
$3.33B
Current Ratio
0.68
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data