RRR

Red Rock ResortsD

Nasdaq / Consumer Services

Quote time unavailable

Current thesis

An on-time North Fork opening followed by fee generation, alongside stabilization in Las Vegas EBITDA, could improve the earnings outlook [#SEC-10Q-2026-08-07] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].

Posture

Defensive

Lead driver

Sentiment

What changed

Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.7.

What can break

Q2 consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell 9.3% year over year, faster than the 3.0% revenue decline [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $51.00 · Bull $63.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-09-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.

Data freshness

Prices

Unavailable: Price unavailable

Fundamentals

As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence

What

Grade D · Defensive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $72.22

Why

Momentum24 · Δ7d +0.7

Value51 · Δ7d -0.1

Sentiment55 · Δ7d -2.7

So what

Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

• Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

• Q2 consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell 9.3% year over year, faster than the 3.0% revenue decline [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
• Quarter-end cash was $136.5 million against $3.6 billion of principal debt outstanding [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
• The Q2 revenue and EBITDA declines may persist while North Fork faces construction, legal or ramp delays.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Declared quarterly dividend payment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot

Momentum

8% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.7

Δ21d

-5.1

Value

47% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

-0.1

Δ21d

+0.3

Sentiment

45% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-2.7

Δ21d

-7.5

Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 24.0 / Value 50.7 / Sentiment 54.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-26. Scenario method

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$63.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$51.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$38.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-10-23

Market Cap

$5.21B

Beta

1.50

Shares Out

59.13M

P/E (TTM)

19.7

P/S (TTM)

3.28

P/FCF (TTM)

30.84

Rev YoY

-3.0%

EPS YoY

-29.3%

Gross Margin

+51.4%

Op Margin

+28.6%

Net Debt

$3.33B

Current Ratio

0.68

As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data