AI Stock Memo: BYD - Boyd Gaming - RankAlpha

BYD

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

Boyd Gaming

As of 2026-03-31/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

future-looking catalyst discovery is still SERP-only and has not been confirmed by a primary source

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Chief Administrative Officer retirement (Stephen Thompson) becomes effective • 2026-03-31

Expected move: +14%

Biggest risk

Leadership turnover, weaker-than-expected leisure/retail customer trends, or cost inflation pressure margins; investor rotation away from regional gaming could compress multiples and push the stock below the current anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $75 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Continued strength in core customer play, successful execution of capital investments, and stable dividends propel multiple expansion toward upper analyst targets; recovery in retail play and margin improvements push the stock toward the high-teens/low-20s percent upside in 12–18 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-31

Base target

$95

p=55%

Bull target

$98

p=20%

Bear target

$75

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Dividend payment and payout cadence (quarterly dividend)
Operational improvement from ongoing capital investment program and retail play growth
Continued strength in core customer play, successful execution of capital investments, and stable dividends propel multiple expansion toward upper analyst targets; recovery in retail play and margin improvements push the stock toward the high-teens/low-20s percent upside in 12–18 months.

BearKey bullets

Executive succession disruption and related costs
Leisure and retail gaming demand softness from macro or regional weakness
Regulatory or casino-specific licensing/operational shocks

WatchKey bullets

Chief Administrative Officer retirement (Stephen Thompson) becomes effective

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $95 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +18% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +14% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $98 (p=20%)Base Target: $95 (p=55%)Bear Target: $75 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: recent PR and investor materials emphasize capital investment and rising play from core customers, supporting an improvement narrative [#IR-undated]. The 8-K retirement created a short-term governance/transition headline that may increase volatility around quarter-end [#8-K-2026-02-24]. Analyst consensus is generally neutral-to-positive, with median targets above the current anchor [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-03-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Dividend payment and payout cadence (quarterly dividend)
Operational improvement from ongoing capital investment program and retail play growth

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-31Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$93.22

Range (USD)

$84.00 - $115.50

Count

Query: Boyd Gaming Corp Common (BYD) analyst consensus price target high low average

BYD / Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #2
The average one-year price target for Boyd Gaming Corporation is $95.74. The forecasts range from a low of $84.84 to a high of $115.50. Read More.
Extracted: $95.74, $84.84, $115.50Open source
Consensus Boyd Gaming Corporation - BYD - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Spread / Average Target. +17.85%. High Price Target. 110.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +37.23%. Low Price Target. 84.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +4.79% ...
Extracted: $110.00, $84.00Open source
Boyd Gaming (BYD) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com UK
Search result #4
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Boyd Gaming is 94.47 USD, with a high estimate of 110 USD and a low ...
Extracted: $94.47, $110.00Open source
Boyd Gaming BYD - Analyst Price Targets & Ratings History
Search result #5
Highest price target for BYD is $100, Lowest price target is $85, average price target is $91. Most recent stock forecast was given by JOSEPH STAUFF from ...
Extracted: $100.00, $85.00, $91.00Open source
BYD Stock Forecast 2026 - Boyd Gaming Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #8
Based on our analysis of 27 Wall Street analysts, BYD has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $93.00 (ranging from $84.00 to $110.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $93.00, $84.00, $110.00Open source
Boyd Gaming (BYD) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #9
11 analysts have given Boyd Gaming (BYD) a consensus rating of Hold while the Boyd Gaming (BYD) price prediction in 2026 is $90.91.
Extracted: $90.91Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$98 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$95 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$75 / p=25% prob

Price $83 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +14% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Chief Administrative Officer retirement (Stephen Thompson) becomes effective
Stephen Thompson announced intent to retire; effective date March 31, 2026 — potential near-term leadership transition, succession costs or reorganization that could affect SG&A and investor sentiment [#8-K-2026-02-24].
Prob 95.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Dividend payment and payout cadence (quarterly dividend)
2026-04-15
Company announced a raised quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share payable April 15, 2026 — near-term cash return that supports income-sensitive buyers and may support the share base [#SERP-4].
Prob 99% • Move 3% • Priced-in 60%
Operational improvement from ongoing capital investment program and retail play growth
2027-03-31
Management cites year-over-year growth in play from core customers and an ongoing capital investment program that supported recent results; if continued, capital investments + marketing/retention should drive margin and revenue mix improvement over the next twelve months [#IR-undated] [#10-Q-2025-10-31].
Prob 60% • Move 20% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Executive succession disruption and related costs
Leisure and retail gaming demand softness from macro or regional weakness
Regulatory or casino-specific licensing/operational shocks
Rising operating costs (labor, utilities, taxes)

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RRR	Red Rock Resorts — closer operating comparator in regional U.S. gaming; similar exposure to domestic casino/resort demand and regional gaming cycles.
WH	Wyndham Hotels & Resorts — hospitality operator with room-night and leisure demand exposure; useful for lodging/room-revenue mix comparisons.
EAT	Brinker International — consumer traffic and dining/amenity revenue sensitivity; serves as a consumer-traffic comparator for attached F&B/revenue-per-visit dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Boyd Gaming Corp Common (BYD) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-31