PRG

AI Memo

PROG

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Board leadership change looks orderly and retention-oriented • 2026-05-07

Expected move: +17%

Biggest risk

Progressive Leasing still faces a smaller gross leased asset balance, tighter decisioning, and weak consumer demand, while Purchasing Power showed elevated delinquencies among federal employee customers. If those pressures persist, earnings quality and growth will stay capped.

Invalidation

Break below $31 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q1 2026 showed 11.1% revenue growth to $742.7M as Purchasing Power and Four offset Progressive Leasing weakness. If the new mix keeps scaling and losses stay contained, the stock can move into the low-to-mid $40s and potentially higher.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$42

p=50%

Bull target

$48

p=25%

Bear target

$31

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 operating update shows diversification is helping
Purchasing Power and Four can keep the mix improving, but credit quality is the swing factor
Q1 2026 showed 11.1% revenue growth to $742.7M as Purchasing Power and Four offset Progressive Leasing weakness.

BearKey bullets

Acquisition funding and interest expense remain a drag, and the company is still carrying debt and asset-backed funding tied to the Purchasing Power deal.
American Signature's bankruptcy will continue to hurt Progressive Leasing GMV, revenue, and earnings in 2026.
Progressive Leasing revenue and active customers are still under pressure from a smaller gross leased asset balance, tighter decisioning, inflation, and weaker durable-goods demand.

WatchKey bullets

Board leadership change looks orderly and retention-oriented

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $42 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +33% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +17% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $48 (p=25%)Base Target: $42 (p=50%)Bear Target: $31 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source filings support a cautiously constructive stance: Q1 revenue grew on the Purchasing Power acquisition and Four, while the legacy lease-to-own engine is still under macro and partner pressure. The board change looks orderly and capital return remains intact, but the packet does not include a fresh analyst-revision set, so conviction stays moderate rather than bullish.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 operating update shows diversification is helping
Purchasing Power and Four can keep the mix improving, but credit quality is the swing factor

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$48 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$42 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=25% prob

Price $36 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 15%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +17% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
Board leadership change looks orderly and retention-oriented
The 8-K says Steve Michaels was elected chairman while Ray Robinson became lead independent director, and the board granted Michaels $5 million of RSUs that vest over three, four, and five years, which frames the change as continuity and long-term retention rather than a disruptive reset [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 90.00% • Move 1.50% • Priced-in 85.00%
EVENT2026-05-29
Dividend and liquidity keep capital return credible
The 10-Q shows a $0.14 quarterly dividend, no revolving borrowings outstanding at March 31, $350M of unused revolver capacity, and only $50M remaining on the term loan after voluntary repayment, which supports the case that capital return is still being funded without obvious near-term balance-sheet stress [#10-Q-2026-04-29].
Prob 80.00% • Move 1.00% • Priced-in 90.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 operating update shows diversification is helping
2026-04-29
The March-quarter 10-Q showed total revenue of $742.7M, net earnings of $36.1M, and diluted EPS of $0.89, with Four growth and the newly acquired Purchasing Power business offsetting a $54.7M revenue decline at Progressive Leasing; management also said the legacy leasing segment was still pressured by a smaller gross leased asset balance, tighter decisioning, and a difficult macro backdrop [#10-Q-2026-04-29].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Purchasing Power and Four can keep the mix improving, but credit quality is the swing factor
2026-08-31
The 10-Q showed Purchasing Power revenue of $107.1M in its first quarter inside the company, Four GMV up 133.6%, and management said new employer clients and better penetration could help offset weakness; at the same time, it flagged elevated delinquencies and write-offs among federal employee customers and continued macro pressure on lease-to-own demand [#10-Q-2026-04-29].
Prob 60% • Move 7% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Acquisition funding and interest expense remain a drag, and the company is still carrying debt and asset-backed funding tied to the Purchasing Power deal.
American Signature's bankruptcy will continue to hurt Progressive Leasing GMV, revenue, and earnings in 2026.
Progressive Leasing revenue and active customers are still under pressure from a smaller gross leased asset balance, tighter decisioning, inflation, and weaker durable-goods demand.
Purchasing Power is adding growth, but the filing flagged elevated delinquencies and write-offs among federal employee customers.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
QFIN	A closer same-sector consumer-credit read-through on underwriting, funding, and credit performance, though the business mix is not a direct lease-to-own match.
EVTC	A similar-sized financial-technology and payments name that helps frame monetization and transaction-volume trends, but it is not a direct consumer-credit or lease-to-own comp.
COF	A larger consumer-credit and funding benchmark that is useful for macro credit-cycle context, but scale and bank structure limit valuation comparability.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: PRG - PROG - RankAlpha