AI Stock Memo: COF - Capital One Financial - RankAlpha

COF

AI Memo

Capital One Financial

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings & forward guidance • 2026-04-24

Expected move: +26%

Biggest risk

Bear case: a deterioration in consumer credit metrics or a sharp macro slowdown forces reserve builds and margin compression, pushing multiple compression and driving the share toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $190 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: sustained NIM expansion and controlled credit costs drive outperformance to the analyst high (~$310), supported by durable card spend and share gains in private-label and co-brand portfolios.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

$235

p=65%

Bull target

$310

p=20%

Bear target

$190

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings & forward guidance
Credit performance / delinquencies update
Macro/Fed policy and loan-yield environment

BearKey bullets

Regulatory actions or fines affecting profitability
Rising consumer delinquencies and larger-than-expected reserve builds
Sharp macro slowdown or unemployment spike reducing card spend

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 217.92, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-24T14:15:23+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Our base_target (235.00) aligns with the analyst median (235.00) and sits well inside the published low/high range (low 217.3, high 310.0) cited in public summaries [#SERP-4][#SERP-1].

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $235 (p=65%)

Bull/Bear spread: +66% / +2%

Vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base +26% · Bear +2%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $310 (p=20%)Base Target: $235 (p=65%)Bear Target: $190 (p=15%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is cautiously constructive: analyst consensus targets cluster above the current anchor, implying measured upside [#SERP-1][#SERP-4]. Recent aggregates show a mix of Buy/Outperform views but a wide high-low spread, indicating divergent views on credit and NIM paths [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings & forward guidance
Credit performance / delinquencies update
Macro/Fed policy and loan-yield environment

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$235.00

Range (USD)

$217.30 - $310.00

Count

Query: Capital One Financial Corp Common (COF) analyst consensus price target high low average

Capital One Financial (COF) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #1
According to the 23 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Capital One Financial, the average price target is $277.75. The highest price target for COF is ...
Extracted: $277.75Open source
Capital One (COF) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $226.00 to a high of $310.00. The average price target represents an increase of 20.82% from the last closing price of $235. ...
Extracted: $226.00, $310.00, $235.00Open source
Consensus Capital One Financial Corporation Nyse - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 23 ; Last Close Price. 234.42USD ; Average target price. 280.48USD ; Spread / Average Target. +19.65%.
Extracted: $234.42, $280.48Open source
Capital One Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates - COF - MarketWatch
Search result #4
Stock Price Targets. High, $310.00. Median, $290.00. Low, $226.00. Average, $285.14. Current Price, $231.01. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. COF will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $310.00, $290.00, $226.00, $285.14, $231.01Open source
COF Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #5
The price of COF shares has decreased $17.77 since the market last closed. This is a 7.56% drop. Closed at $217.30.
Extracted: $17.77, $217.30Open source
Capital One Finl Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:COF
Search result #6
Capital One Financial Corp has a consensus price target of $226.07 based on the ratings of 27 analysts. The high is $310 issued by Citigroup on December 31, ...
Extracted: $226.07, $310.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$310 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$235 / p=65% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$190 / p=15% prob

Price $187 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base +26% · Bear +2%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings & forward guidance
2026-04-24
Q1/quarterly earnings release and management guidance that can re-rate credit card loan growth and net interest margin; analyst consensus targets imply upside vs. current price [#SERP-1][#SERP-4].
Prob 45% • Move 12% • Priced-in 60%
Credit performance / delinquencies update
2026-04-24
Changes in delinquency trends or reserve builds for credit-card and consumer portfolios could materially affect EPS and valuation; credit-cycle risk noted in analyst commentary [#SERP-3].
Prob 25% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Macro/Fed policy and loan-yield environment
2027-01-24
Longer-term path of Fed policy and consumer credit demand will drive NIM and credit costs; full macro repricing may take >12 months (assumed window end) [#SERP-4].
Prob 30% • Move 18% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Regulatory actions or fines affecting profitability
Rising consumer delinquencies and larger-than-expected reserve builds
Sharp macro slowdown or unemployment spike reducing card spend
Unexpected rapid decline in NIM from deposit repricing

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AXP	Consumer payment network and lending mix; useful comps for card franchise and rewards-driven consumer behavior.
SYF	Retail-focused card issuer; sensitive to consumer delinquencies.
BAC	Large retail bank; useful benchmark for NIM and deposit trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Capital One Financial Corp Common (COF) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24