AI Stock Memo: PGC - Peapack-Gladstone Financial - RankAlpha

PGC

Rating buyAI Memo

Peapack-Gladstone Financial

As of 2026-01-27/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Share repurchase program expansion (announced) • 2025-12-23

Expected move: -21%

Biggest risk

Bear case: NIM compression, a deterioration in CRE credit, or a sudden funding shock could compress multiples below peers and send the stock toward the analyst low or below; limited liquidity and local market concentration amplify downside.

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: continued buybacks and steady dividends combined with stable credit metrics and modest NIM recovery push valuation toward the high analyst targets; favorable macro and limited CRE stress would support ~+30–35% upside versus anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-27

Base target

$35

p=60%

Bull target

$39

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings / results release
Quarterly dividend declaration
Credit performance and CRE exposure cycle

BearKey bullets

CRE concentration and potential localized loan losses
Net interest margin compression if rates decline
Regulatory capital or compliance actions

WatchKey bullets

Share repurchase program expansion (announced)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $35 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -10% / -36%

Vs latest close: Bull -10% · Base -21% · Bear -36%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $39 (p=20%)Base Target: $35 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: analysts' consensus targets cluster above the current anchor, reflecting moderate upside expectations on buybacks/dividends [#SERP-1], [#SERP-6]. Recent company filings reinforce a capital-return priority (8-K repurchase update) while also noting CRE concentration and modest allowance increases in 10-Qs, keeping investors focused on credit risk [#8-K-2025-12-23], [#10-Q-2025Q1]. Near-term headlines show steady analyst attention with occasional target raises but no material negative surprises to date [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings / results release
Quarterly dividend declaration
Credit performance and CRE exposure cycle

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$34.50

Range (USD)

$27.79 - $39.00

Count

Query: Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp Common (PGC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp. (PGC) Stock Forecast, Price ...
Search result #1
The average price target is $33.50 with a high forecast of $35.00 and a low forecast of $32.00. The average price target represents a 13.91% change from the ...
Extracted: $33.50, $35.00, $32.00Open source
Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation (PGC) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #2
Analyst Piper Sandler. Rating Action Maintains. Rating Overweight. Price Action Raises. Price Target 30 -> 32. View More. Statistics: PGC. View More. Valuation ...
Open source
Peapack-Gladstone (PGC) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $34.00 to a high of $38.50. The average price target represents an increase of 14.42% from the last closing price of $31.14.
Extracted: $34.00, $38.50, $31.14Open source
Peapack-Gladstone Stock Price Today | NASDAQ: PGC Live
Search result #4
The average 12-month price target for Peapack-Gladstone is USD35.63, with a high estimate of USD38.5 and a low estimate of USD34. 4 analysts recommend buying ...
Extracted: $35.63, $38.50, $34.00Open source
PGC Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN
Search result #5
Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation PGC is trading in the middle of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. The price of PGC shares ...
Open source
Peapack-Gladstone Financial (PGC) Stock Price, News & Analysis
Search result #6
Price Target and Rating. Average Price Target for Peapack-Gladstone Financial: $35.33. High Price Target: $39.00. Low Price Target: $32.00. Potential Upside ...
Extracted: $35.33, $39.00, $32.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$39 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $44 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -10% · Base -21% · Bear -36%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2025-12-23
Share repurchase program expansion (announced)
Board authorized an incremental repurchase amount in 8-K and reaffirmed capital-return priority; this is already disclosed (8-K 2025-12-23) and supports near-term buyback-driven support [#8-K-2025-12-23].
Prob 100.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings / results release
2026-04-27
Upcoming quarterly results (earnings, NIM, credit metrics) could move the stock; no public earnings date found so estimate used — management has signaled steady performance in recent filings [#10-Q-2025Q1].
Prob 85% • Move 6% • Priced-in 70%
Quarterly dividend declaration
2026-04-27
Company has historically paid regular quarterly dividends and the board typically declares/adjusts each quarter; next declaration expected in the coming quarter per dividend policy in the 10-K [#10-K-2024].
Prob 90% • Move 2% • Priced-in 80%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Credit performance and CRE exposure cycle
2027-01-27
Longer-term re-pricing, CRE portfolio performance, and macro rate moves will drive valuation over 12+ months; 10-K notes CRE concentration and management flagged allowance increases in recent 10-Qs [#10-K-2024], [#10-Q-2025Q1].
Prob 60% • Move 15% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

CRE concentration and potential localized loan losses
Net interest margin compression if rates decline
Regulatory capital or compliance actions
Unexpected dividend cut or buyback suspension

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AUB	Atlantic Union Bankshares — similar regional commercial lending footprint and sensitivity to regional CRE and rate cycles.
VLY	Valley National Bancorp — larger regional peer with significant New Jersey presence and similar deposit/loan mix dynamics.
OFG	OFG Bancorp — midsize bank with community/CRE exposure and comparable capital-return emphasis.
WSBC	WesBanco — regional lender exposed to commercial lending trends and rate-margin pressure; useful operational comparitor.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp Common (PGC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-27