VLY

Rating buyAI Memo

Valley National Bancorp

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Net interest income (NII) trajectory • 2027-01-30

Expected move: -4%

Biggest risk

Deposit outflows, sustained funding-cost pressure, or rising charge-offs lead to multiple compression and downside toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $11 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Execution on NII expansion, stable credit metrics, and multiple re-rating drive shares toward the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$13

p=60%

Bull target

$16

p=20%

Bear target

$11

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings report (assumed)
Deposit stability / funding-cost announcements
Execution on NII expansion, stable credit metrics, and multiple re-rating drive shares toward the bull target.

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows / higher funding costs
Multiple compression from regional bank risk-off
Wider-than-expected loan-loss provisions

WatchKey bullets

Net interest income (NII) trajectory

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $13 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base -4% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $16 (p=20%)Base Target: $13 (p=60%)Bear Target: $11 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst targets cluster in the low-to-mid teens with cautious optimism after recent beats. Short-term sentiment is event-driven (earnings, NII) while long-term tone depends on sustained loan growth and credit trends.

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Execution on NII expansion, stable credit metrics, and multiple re-rating drive shares toward the bull target.

Bear Case

Deposit outflows, sustained funding-cost pressure, or rising charge-offs lead to multiple compression and downside toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings report (assumed)
Deposit stability / funding-cost announcements

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$13.22

Range (USD)

$10.60 - $15.00

Count

Query: Valley National Bancorp Common (VLY) analyst consensus price target high low average

Valley National Bancorp Consensus Estimates (VLY)
Search result #1
91. The highest analyst price target is USD15, and the lowest is USD12.5. What Is VLY's Potential Upside or Downside, Based on the Analysts' Average Price ...
Extracted: $15.00, $12.50Open source
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Valley National (VLY) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates. Zacks • 1d ago ... Analyst Insights: VLY. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 13.00. 14.42 ...
Open source
Valley National (VLY) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $11.00 to a high of $15.00. The average price target represents an increase of 12.63% from the last closing price of $12.27.
Extracted: $11.00, $15.00, $12.27Open source
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #4
The average price target is $13.90 with a high forecast of $15.00 and a low forecast of $13.00. The average price target represents a 13.10% change from the ...
Extracted: $13.90, $15.00, $13.00Open source
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #5
According to the 16 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Valley National Bancorp, the average price target is $13.43. The highest price target for VLY ...
Extracted: $13.43Open source
Valley National Bancorp Stock Forecast | VLY Price Target & Analyst ...
Search result #6
Highest Price Target. $15.00 (22.2%) ; Average Price Target. $14.75 (20.2%) ; Lowest Price Target. $12.00 (0.0%).
Extracted: $15.00, $14.75, $12.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=20% prob

Price $14 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base -4% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-01-30
Net interest income (NII) trajectory
Bank-level NII outcomes from rate and loan-mix shifts will materially affect 12-month valuation; this is treated as a medium-term event to capture full-cycle effects.
Prob 70.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings report (assumed)
2026-04-30
Upcoming quarterly results are the primary near-term catalyst; recent Q4 commentary showed beats and could drive guidance revisions and intraday volatility.
Prob 80% • Move 7% • Priced-in 60%
Deposit stability / funding-cost announcements
2026-04-30
Material deposit-rate changes, wholesale funding moves, or notable outflows can compress margins and trigger re-rating; monitor bank-specific and regional funding signals.
Prob 50% • Move -10% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Deposit outflows / higher funding costs
Multiple compression from regional bank risk-off
Wider-than-expected loan-loss provisions

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PNC	Large regional; useful comparator for funding and NII sensitivity.
KEY	Regional peer with similar consumer/commercial exposure and deposit dynamics.
CFG	Mid-sized regional with overlapping footprint; helpful for credit and funding comparisons.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Valley National Bancorp Common (VLY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30

AI Stock Memo: VLY - Valley National Bancorp - RankAlpha