OVLY

AI Memo

Oak Valley Bancorp

As of 2026-01-17/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings / credit-quality update • 2026-04-17

Expected move: -10%

Biggest risk

Bear drivers: an unexpected rise in nonperforming loans, deposit outflows, or downward analyst revisions that push consensus toward the low end; small-cap regional banks trade sharply on reserve shocks or funding fears [#SERP-5].

Invalidation

Break below $23 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull drivers: sustained credit improvement, stable deposit base, and either positive analyst revisions or a favorable M&A outcome that re-rates the stock toward the analyst high; upside supported by recent high estimates in aggregator snippets [#SERP-4], [#SERP-7].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-17

Base target

$30

p=60%

Bull target

$35

p=20%

Bear target

$23

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Regional consolidation or balance-sheet improvement
Bull drivers: sustained credit improvement, stable deposit base, and either positive analyst revisions or a favorable M&A outcome that re-rates the stock toward the analyst high; upside supported by recent high estimates in aggregator snippets [#SERP-4], [#SERP-7].

BearKey bullets

Dilutive capital raise or adverse M&A terms from S-3 shelf use
Loan-loss reserve shock from commercial or CRE concentrations
Loss of analyst coverage or negative consensus revisions

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / credit-quality update

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $30 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +4% / -32%

Vs latest close: Bull +4% · Base -10% · Bear -32%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $35 (p=20%)Base Target: $30 (p=60%)Bear Target: $23 (p=20%)

Commentary

Coverage is light and views cluster in the low-30s; the base target sits slightly below the current market anchor, implying limited near-term upside and supporting a neutral stance. Recent filings and summaries keep credit provisions and CECL impacts top of mind, while the combination of a shelf and a repurchase authorization creates offsetting signals (capital flexibility vs. EPS support). Overall tone is cautious—price moves are likely to be driven by single-event headlines or reserve/earnings surprises given low liquidity and sparse analyst coverage.

As of 2026-01-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Regional consolidation or balance-sheet improvement

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-17Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$30.06

Range (USD)

$22.70 - $34.56

Count

Query: Oak Valley Bancorp Common (OVLY) analyst consensus price target high low average

Oak Valley (OVLY) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
Find the latest Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) stock forecast, 12-month price target, predictions and analyst recommendations.
Open sourceJan 2, 2026
Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #2
OVLY's current price target is $0.00. Learn why top analysts are making this stock forecast for Oak Valley Bancorp at MarketBeat.
Open source
Oak Valley Bancorp (NasdaqCM:OVLY) Stock Valuation, Peer ...
Search result #3
Analyst Price Targets ; Share Price, US$30.06 ; Average 1Y Price Target, N/A ; Agreement. N/A ...
Extracted: $30.06Open source
Oak Valley Bancorp(nda) Stock Forecast - StockInvest.us
Search result #4
The 52-week high for Oak Valley Bancorp(NDA) Stock is $31.90 and the 52-week low is $22.70.
Extracted: $31.90, $22.70Open source
[PDF] Microcap Report for OVLY - Zacks Advisor Tools
Search result #5
Oak Valley Bancorp CA (OVLY). Stock Price: $30.43 (As of 01/06/2026). Zacks Recommendation: Neutral. (Since: 09/24/2025). Prior Recommendation ...
Extracted: $30.43Open sourceJan 7, 2026
Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #6
See Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=20% prob

Price $33 as of 2026-07-21

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +4% · Base -10% · Bear -32%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-17
Quarterly earnings / credit-quality update
Next quarterly results and credit-quality disclosure could reveal loan-loss reserve changes or EPS variance; market often re-prices small-bank names around earnings [#SERP-1], [#SERP-6]. Date estimated conservatively (assumed reporting cycle) and may shift.
Prob 100.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
2026-04-17
Analyst coverage and 12-month targets are sparse but present; revisions (up or down) could move sentiment — current snippets show a range and a median near 30.06 [#SERP-3], [#SERP-5].
Prob 60% • Move 10% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Regional consolidation or balance-sheet improvement
2027-01-17
Over 12 months, M&A chatter or sustained improvement in asset quality/loan growth could lift multiple; projection windows in public forecasts show a wider long-run band [#SERP-7].
Prob 25% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Dilutive capital raise or adverse M&A terms from S-3 shelf use
Loan-loss reserve shock from commercial or CRE concentrations
Loss of analyst coverage or negative consensus revisions
Unanticipated deposit outflows or rapid funding-cost increases

Peers

Symbol	Summary
OZK	Smaller regional bank with similar community-lending mix; useful comparator for credit-cycle sensitivity.
CUBI	Mid-sized regional with retail deposit franchise; comparable for funding-profile and M&A dynamics.
FULT	Regional bank focused on commercial lending and retail branches; reflects similar exposure to local CRE and consumer loans.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Oak Valley Bancorp Common (OVLY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-17

AI Stock Memo: OVLY - Oak Valley Bancorp - RankAlpha