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OVLY

Oak Valley BancorpC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull drivers: sustained credit improvement, stable deposit base, and either positive analyst revisions or a favorable M&A outcome that re-rates the stock toward the analyst high; upside supported by recent high estimates in aggregator snippets [#SERP-4], [#SERP-7].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Dilutive capital raise or adverse M&A terms from S-3 shelf use
Momentum
33
Value
60
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.06 · Bull $34.56 · Bear $22.70Analysis 2026-01-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -
Value60 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Dilutive capital raise or adverse M&A terms from S-3 shelf use
  • • Loan-loss reserve shock from commercial or CRE concentrations
  • • Bear drivers: an unexpected rise in nonperforming loans, deposit outflows, or downward analyst revisions that push consensus toward the low end; small-cap regional banks trade sharply on reserve shocks or funding fears [#SERP-5].

Catalyst clock

2026-04-17

Quarterly earnings / credit-quality update

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
33
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 32.7 / Value 59.8 / Sentiment 46.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.56
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$30.06
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$286.96M
Beta
0.25
Shares Out
8.41M
P/E (TTM)
10.7
P/S (TTM)
3.20
P/FCF (TTM)
16.47
Rev YoY
+4.6%
EPS YoY
-9.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+30.7%
Net Debt
-$195.48M
Current Ratio
0.13
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data