ONEW

Rating neutralAI Memo

OneWater Marine

As of 2026-05-03/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 print keeps guidance intact despite revenue miss • 2026-05-10

Expected move: +1%

Biggest risk

The bearish read is that the quarter still showed an 8.5% revenue decline, 8% same-store sales decline, adjusted diluted EPS loss of $(0.34), and a wider GAAP loss, implying that margin gains are not yet enough to offset weak unit demand and deleveraging risk if the market stays soft. [#8-K-2026-04-30]

Invalidation

Break below $8 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bullish read is that Q2 showed real self-help: gross margin expanded to 23.9%, inventory fell to $551.4M from $602.4M, debt was reduced by about $56.6M during the quarter, and FY2026 guidance was maintained despite a soft selling environment. [#8-K-2026-04-30]

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-03

Base target

$12

p=1%

Bull target

$15

p=0%

Bear target

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings digestion may stay muted because analyst follow-through is thin
Inventory, leverage, and mix improvement remain the core recovery lever
The bullish read is that Q2 showed real self-help: gross margin expanded to 23.9%, inventory fell to $551.4M from $602.4M, debt was reduced by about $56.6M during the quarter, and FY2026 guidance was maintained despite a soft selling environment.

BearKey bullets

GAAP results included a $5.8M non-cash trade-name impairment charge tied to retail-location brand realignment.
Leverage improved but adjusted long-term net debt was still 4.1x trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA as of March 31, 2026.
Maintained FY2026 guidance still assumes dealership same-store sales roughly flat for the year, leaving little room for further consumer demand slippage.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 print keeps guidance intact despite revenue miss

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $12 (p=1%)

Bull/Bear spread: +28% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +28% · Base +1% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $15 (p=0%)Base Target: $12 (p=1%)Bear Target: $8 (p=0%)

Commentary

News tone is mixed: the company source emphasized margin expansion, debt paydown, and maintained guidance, while trusted coverage emphasized the revenue/EPS miss versus consensus. By the 2026-05-01 anchor close of $9.80, the stock was still below the $10.11 open reported on earnings day, which suggests the post-print tape did not treat the maintained outlook as a clean positive; that price-reaction read is an inference from the anchor and market coverage rather than a direct company statement. Coverage is thin, and delayed analyst revision evidence is still limited at this T+3 follow-up.

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings digestion may stay muted because analyst follow-through is thin
Inventory, leverage, and mix improvement remain the core recovery lever

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=0% prob

Price $11 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +28% · Base +1% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.15

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-10
Q2 print keeps guidance intact despite revenue miss
Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue fell 8.5% to $442.3M, same-store sales fell 8%, gross margin expanded 110 bps to 23.9%, and management maintained full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA/EPS outlook; the near-term debate is whether margin discipline and unchanged guidance can offset weaker top-line demand after the earnings miss versus consensus noted in trusted coverage. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Prob 70.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings digestion may stay muted because analyst follow-through is thin
2026-05-15
At T+3, delayed analyst revision evidence appears limited, while trusted coverage frames the quarter as a revenue and EPS miss versus consensus; absent a clearer revision cycle, the stock may remain in monitoring mode rather than rerate quickly.
Prob 60% • Move -5% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Inventory, leverage, and mix improvement remain the core recovery lever
2026-09-30
Management highlighted lower inventory, debt repayment supported by the OBCI sale, and better new/pre-owned boat mix; if marine demand stabilizes, those balance-sheet and margin actions provide the main path to a later recovery, but this is still contingent on volume normalization. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Prob 55% • Move 18% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

GAAP results included a $5.8M non-cash trade-name impairment charge tied to retail-location brand realignment.
Leverage improved but adjusted long-term net debt was still 4.1x trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA as of March 31, 2026.
Maintained FY2026 guidance still assumes dealership same-store sales roughly flat for the year, leaving little room for further consumer demand slippage. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
New boat revenue fell 12.1%, and management linked part of the decline to lower unit volumes as well as boat-show timing.
Top-line demand remains soft, with Q2 revenue down 8.5% and same-store sales down 8%.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SNBR	Loose same-sector small-cap consumer comp from the packet, but not a direct marine retail peer; useful mainly as a weak read-through for discretionary demand and margin pressure.
BRLT	Loose same-sector small-cap retail comp from the packet, but operating overlap with boat retail is limited; peer read-through for ONEW should be treated cautiously.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-03

AI Stock Memo: ONEW - OneWater Marine - RankAlpha