B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ONEW
OneWater MarineBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The packet's positive directional prior is supported by Q3 margin expansion, 15% adjusted EBITDA growth, and lower leverage despite a 4% revenue decline. Sustained mix benefits and eventual volume recovery could lift earnings.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
A 10% owner reported multiple open-market share sales in August and September; these filings do not establish an operating problem. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-12] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-08]
Momentum
36
Value
65
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.75 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-29
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.20
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -22.2
Value65 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -8.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A 10% owner reported multiple open-market share sales in August and September; these filings do not establish an operating problem. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-12] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-08]
- • A director resigned effective September 3 and left the audit committee. The company stated that the resignation did not result from a disagreement over operations, policies, or practices. [#8-K-2026-09-08]
- • Same-store sales fell 2% in Q3, and management revised full-year guidance amid a weak industry outlook.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-15
Fiscal 2026 results test reduced guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-22.2
Δ21d
-43.8
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.5
Δ21d
+16.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 35.9 / Value 64.6 / Sentiment 60.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$159.66M
Beta
1.67
Shares Out
16.67M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
21.8
P/S (TTM)
0.10
P/FCF (TTM)
2.31
Rev YoY
-4.0%
EPS YoY
+5.7%
Gross Margin
+22.5%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$899.55M
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data