B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ONEW
OneWater MarineBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Margin expansion, cost control, inventory discipline, and leverage reduction improve earnings quality and provide upside if premium boat demand and broader marine retail recover.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.5.
What can break
FY2026 guidance was reduced to $1.75-$1.80 billion revenue, $68-$78 million adjusted EBITDA, and $0.35-$0.55 adjusted diluted EPS.
Momentum
36
Value
64
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.50 · Bull $18.40 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.40
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -25.8
Value64 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment75 · Δ7d -8.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 guidance was reduced to $1.75-$1.80 billion revenue, $68-$78 million adjusted EBITDA, and $0.35-$0.55 adjusted diluted EPS.
- • Leverage improved materially but remained 3.7x adjusted net debt to EBITDA; total liquidity was $73.3 million at June 30, 2026.
- • Revenue and same-store sales declined, adjusted EPS and revenue reportedly missed consensus, and FY2026 guidance was lowered amid a high-single-digit industry decline.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
Margin expansion and deleveraging execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-25.8
Δ21d
-54.0
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.5
Δ21d
+16.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 35.9 / Value 63.9 / Sentiment 74.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$191.16M
Beta
1.67
Shares Out
16.67M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
26.1
P/S (TTM)
0.10
P/FCF (TTM)
2.31
Rev YoY
-4.0%
EPS YoY
+5.7%
Gross Margin
+22.5%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$899.55M
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data