OMF

Rating buyAI Memo

OneMain

As of 2026-01-22/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 2025 earnings and guidance release • 2026-02-05

Expected move: +30%

Biggest risk

If delinquencies re‑accelerate or funding costs rise materially, loss provisioning and capital strain could compress earnings and push valuation toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $55 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

If credit trends remain benign and originations stabilize, OneMain's high‑yield loan book and capital returns could justify upside toward the analyst high; acquisition of market share or sustained NIM expansion would support the bull outcome.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-22

Base target

$71

p=60%

Bull target

$89

p=20%

Bear target

$55

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post‑earnings analyst revisions
Consensus target range re‑pricing
If credit trends remain benign and originations stabilize, OneMain's high‑yield loan book and capital returns could justify upside toward the analyst high; acquisition of market share or sustained NIM expansion would support the bull outcome.

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades or consensus target cuts
Higher funding costs compressing net interest margin
Regulatory or policy changes affecting consumer lending

WatchKey bullets

Q4 2025 earnings and guidance release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $71 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +64% / +1%

Vs latest close: Bull +64% · Base +30% · Bear +1%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $89 (p=20%)Base Target: $71 (p=60%)Bear Target: $55 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment appears cautiously constructive: multiple aggregator sources show average targets in the low‑to‑mid 70s, implying modest upside from the current anchor [#SERP-1][#SERP-4]. Near‑term focus is on the Feb 05, 2026 earnings release, which market participants cite as the primary price catalyst [#SERP-9]. If results disappoint, expect swift repricing given concentrated analyst coverage [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-01-22 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

If delinquencies re‑accelerate or funding costs rise materially, loss provisioning and capital strain could compress earnings and push valuation toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post‑earnings analyst revisions
Consensus target range re‑pricing

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-22Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$70.60

Range (USD)

$63.00 - $89.25

Count

Query: OneMain Holdings Inc Common (OMF) analyst consensus price target high low average

OneMain Holdings Inc (OMF) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for OneMain Holdings is 73.86667, with a high estimate of 90 and a low estimate ...
Open source
OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #2
The average price target is $72.20 with a high forecast of $80.00 and a low forecast of $64.00. The average price target represents a 10.40% change from the ...
Extracted: $72.20, $80.00, $64.00Open source
OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #3
See OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
OMF / OneMain Holdings, Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #4
The average one-year price target for OneMain Holdings, Inc. is $73.44. The forecasts range from a low of $63.63 to a high of $89.25. Read More.
Extracted: $73.44, $63.63, $89.25Open source
OneMain Holdings, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #5
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 17 ; Last Close Price. 66.37USD ; Average target price. 73.87USD ; Spread / Average Target. +11.30%.
Extracted: $66.37, $73.87Open source
OneMain Holdings, Inc. Stock Forecast | OMF Price Target & Analyst ...
Search result #6
Based on 29 analysts in the last 3 months, the overall rating is Buy with a 12-month price target of $69.00, representing 2.57% upside from the current ...
Extracted: $69.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$89 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$71 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$55 / p=20% prob

Price $54 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +64% · Base +30% · Bear +1%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-05
Q4 2025 earnings and guidance release
Q4 2025 results and management guidance due Feb 05, 2026; will reveal loan performance, loss‑reserve trends and capital return capacity [#SERP-9].
Prob 80.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post‑earnings analyst revisions
2026-04-22
Analysts (Investing.com, TipRanks) typically update 12‑month targets after quarterly results; revisions could drive re‑rating or volatility [#SERP-1][#SERP-2].
Prob 65% • Move 5% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Consensus target range re‑pricing
2027-01-22
Over a 12‑month horizon the analyst consensus range (low ~$63, high ~$89.25) can shift with macro/credit cycle; full re‑rating may materialize by the end of the next fiscal year [#SERP-4][#SERP-1].
Prob 40% • Move 15% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Analyst downgrades or consensus target cuts
Higher funding costs compressing net interest margin
Regulatory or policy changes affecting consumer lending
Worsening consumer delinquencies/charge-offs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ALLY	Diversified consumer finance and auto lender with comparable rate and retail distribution exposure.
SYF	Retail-branded consumer credit provider; large installment/card portfolio and payment trend sensitivity.
COF	Major credit‑card issuer with broad unsecured consumer lending exposure and comparable credit/risk vectors.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: OneMain Holdings Inc Common (OMF) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-22

AI Stock Memo: OMF - OneMain - RankAlpha