NWN

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Northwest Natural

As of 2026-11-06/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-11-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Regulatory outcomes flow through to earnings • 2027-03-31

Base target: $54 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

The quarter still produced a $0.71-per-share loss, revenue missed the cited consensus, and the investment program requires timely regulatory recovery and financing. MX3 upside remains conditional. No verified post-print analyst target or estimate revision was found, so the guidance raise should not be treated as independently endorsed. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05] SEC earnings exhibit Consensus comparison

Invalidation

Break below $45 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The guidance increase, customer-connection growth of 1.8%, constructive rate outcomes and cost discipline support earnings visibility. Nine-month 2026 EPS rose to $1.62 from $1.36 a year earlier. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05] SEC earnings exhibit

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-11-06

Base target

$54

p=50%

Bull target

$58

p=25%

Bear target

$45

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Raised 2026 guidance after third-quarter results
Capital investment and rate-base growth
The guidance increase, customer-connection growth of 1.8%, constructive rate outcomes and cost discipline support earnings visibility.

BearKey bullets

Regulatory recovery, customer affordability and cost control may not sustain the raised 2026 EPS range.
[#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
The $2.6–$2.9 billion 2026–2030 investment plan creates execution and financing risk; projected rate-base growth is not guaranteed.

WatchKey bullets

Regulatory outcomes flow through to earnings

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $54 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +7% / -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $58 (p=25%)Base Target: $54 (p=50%)Bear Target: $45 (p=25%)

Commentary

Initial reaction was positive but restrained: NWN closed November 5 at $51.81, up 0.97% from $51.31, while the broader market fell sharply. The company-confirmed guidance raise outweighs the modest revenue miss in the near-term narrative, but no verified post-print analyst revision or November 6 closing reaction is available. The zero sentiment metrics above indicate unavailable data, not measured neutral readings. Financial Times price record Consensus comparison

As of 2026-11-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Raised 2026 guidance after third-quarter results
Capital investment and rate-base growth

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$58 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$54 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-11-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.30

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-03-31
Regulatory outcomes flow through to earnings
The company cited constructive Washington and Oregon outcomes and a SiEnergy rate-case settlement in Texas. The next test is whether these outcomes support earnings through the heating season; the packet does not establish a precise incremental EPS contribution or a final Texas rate-effective date. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05] SEC earnings exhibit
Prob 60.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Raised 2026 guidance after third-quarter results
2026-11-20
NWN reported a seasonal third-quarter loss of $0.71 per share and raised 2026 EPS guidance to $3.10–$3.20 from its prior expectation for the upper half of $2.95–$3.15. Investing.com reports an $0.18 EPS beat versus its consensus, but revenue of $177.97 million missed its $179.14 million estimate. Further repricing depends on investors accepting the stronger full-year outlook despite the revenue miss. [#8-K-2026-11-05] [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05] SEC earnings exhibit Consensus comparison
Prob 65% • Move 3% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital investment and rate-base growth
2029-12-31
NWN reaffirmed planned 2026–2030 capital expenditure of $2.6–$2.9 billion, expected rate-base growth of 6%–8%, and a 4%–6% long-term EPS growth target. Its potential 5%–7% EPS growth case depends on the MX3 storage project entering service before the end of 2029; that upside is conditional, not secured. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05] SEC earnings exhibit
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Regulatory recovery, customer affordability and cost control may not sustain the raised 2026 EPS range. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
The $2.6–$2.9 billion 2026–2030 investment plan creates execution and financing risk; projected rate-base growth is not guaranteed. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
The higher long-term EPS growth case depends on MX3 entering service before the end of 2029. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
Third-quarter revenue was below the cited consensus despite the EPS beat. Consensus comparison

Peers

Symbol	Summary
OGS	Direct regulated natural-gas distribution comparison, including Texas exposure, but without NWN's water and storage mix. ONE Gas investor relations
SWX	Direct regulated natural-gas distribution comparison; geography, capital programs and regulatory timing differ from NWN. Southwest Gas investor relations

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-11-06