HTO

Rating buyAI Memo

H2O America

As of 2026-02-27/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings & guidance • 2026-05-28

Expected move: +4%

Biggest risk

Adverse regulatory rulings, rising financing costs or unforeseen operational setbacks compress multiples and cash flow, pushing the stock toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $52 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Favorable rate-case outcomes, steady rate-base growth and modest multiple expansion drive upside toward the bull target; dividend resilience and consensus upgrades would support rerating.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-27

Base target

$60

p=60%

Bull target

$68

p=25%

Bear target

$52

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target revisions
Capital-allocation & dividend policy
Favorable rate-case outcomes, steady rate-base growth and modest multiple expansion drive upside toward the bull target; dividend resilience and consensus upgrades would support rerating.

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory rate-case outcomes or delays
Higher-than-expected capex and financing costs
Interest-rate driven multiple compression

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings & guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $60 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +18% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +4% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $68 (p=25%)Base Target: $60 (p=60%)Bear Target: $52 (p=15%)

Commentary

Coverage is limited but constructive: median published targets cluster near $59.5 with highs around $63, implying modest upside from the anchor. Market tone is cautious-constructive and sensitive to regulatory outcomes and the next quarterly print.

As of 2026-02-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Favorable rate-case outcomes, steady rate-base growth and modest multiple expansion drive upside toward the bull target; dividend resilience and consensus upgrades would support rerating.

Bear Case

Adverse regulatory rulings, rising financing costs or unforeseen operational setbacks compress multiples and cash flow, pushing the stock toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target revisions
Capital-allocation & dividend policy

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$59.50

Range (USD)

$54.52 - $63.00

Count

Query: H2O America Common (HTO) analyst consensus price target high low average

What is the current Price Target and Forecast for H2O America (HTO)
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $59.00 to a high of $63.00. The average price target represents an increase of 11.23% from the last closing price of $54.84.
Extracted: $59.00, $63.00, $54.84Open source
H2O America: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
H2O America analysts consensus, targets, ratings and recommendations | Nasdaq: HTO | Nasdaq.
Open source
H2O America Analyst Estimates - HTO - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $63.00. Median, $61.00. Low, $59.00. Average, $61.00. Current Price, $54.52. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. HTO will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $63.00, $61.00, $59.00, $54.52Open source
H2O America (Nasdaq:HTO) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St
Search result #4
Price target decreased by 7.7% to US$59.40. Feb 03. Third quarter dividend ... Analyst Consensus Estimates, +3 years. Forecast financials; Analyst price ...
Extracted: $59.40Open source
HTO Analyst Ratings | H2O AMERICA (NASDAQ:HTO) | ChartMill.com
Search result #5
8 analysts have analysed HTO and the average price target is 62.22 USD. This implies a price increase of 12.96% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $62.22Open source
H2O America (HTO) Stock, Price, News, Quotes, Forecast and Insights
Search result #6
HTO is rated "Strong Buy" with a 12-month target price of $61.00, a ‎11.23 ... American Water Works misses quarterly results estimates on higher expenses.
Extracted: $61.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$68 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=15% prob

Price $58 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +4% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-28
Quarterly earnings & guidance
Quarterly results and management guidance are the primary near-term driver; investors will focus on rate-case commentary and dividend signals that could reprice consensus.
Prob 60.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target revisions
2026-05-28
Updates to published targets or consensus (current $59–$63 band) may trigger short-term re-rating or position adjustments.
Prob 50% • Move 5% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital-allocation & dividend policy
2027-02-27
Over a 12‑month horizon, changes to dividend policy, buybacks or major capex decisions could alter yield and multiple; timing is uncertain.
Prob 30% • Move 12% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Adverse regulatory rate-case outcomes or delays
Higher-than-expected capex and financing costs
Interest-rate driven multiple compression
Operational disruptions from extreme weather or supply issues

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AWK	Large regulated water utility with broad scale and comparable regulatory exposure.
CWT	California-focused regulated utility exposed to local regulation and drought risks.
WTRG	Multi-utility peer with comparable analyst coverage and rate-case re-rating potential.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: H2O America Common (HTO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-27

AI Stock Memo: HTO - H2O America - RankAlpha