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NU

Rating buyAI Memo

As of 2026-01-28/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025 earnings release • 2026-02-25

Base target: $19 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes a macro-driven credit deterioration in core Latin American markets, slower-than-expected monetization, and regulatory or funding stresses that compress multiples and force provision increases, driving the stock toward the low‑teens in our $12.00 bear scenario.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes Nu accelerates user monetization and loan growth with stable credit performance, leading to multiple expansion above current consensus and material upside versus the anchor. Execution of cross‑sell and improved NIMs combined with favorable FX and payments volumes could support our $25.00 bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-28

Base target

$19

p=60%

Bull target

$25

p=20%

Bear target

$12

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target convergence / revisions
Latin America digital-banking scale-up
Bull case assumes Nu accelerates user monetization and loan growth with stable credit performance, leading to multiple expansion above current consensus and material upside versus the anchor.

BearKey bullets

Credit deterioration in core LatAm markets
FX volatility impacting USD reporting
Intensifying competition from incumbent and global fintechs

WatchKey bullets

FY2025 earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $19 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +32% / -37%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $25 (p=20%)Base Target: $19 (p=60%)Bear Target: $12 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst targets cluster near the median (~$18.86) with a narrower band to the high‑$20s in optimistic scenarios; the market expects modest upside but limited margin for error [#SERP-1][#SERP-4]. Near-term focus is the FY2025 print; macro and FX risks keep investor sentiment cautious despite upside in the bull case [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-01-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target convergence / revisions
Latin America digital-banking scale-up

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-28Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$18.86

Range (USD)

$11.20 - $22.00

Count

Query: Nu Holdings Ltd Class A Common (NU) analyst consensus price target high low average

Nu Holdings Ltd. Cl A Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $22.00. Median, $20.00. Low, $11.20. Average, $19.02. Current Price, $18.18. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. NU will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $22.00, $20.00, $11.20, $19.02, $18.18Open source
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Q3. FY25. 0. 1B. 2B. 3B. 4B. View More. Analyst Insights: NU. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 17.00 Low. 19.99 Average. 18.55 Current. 22.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Nu Holdings Ltd. Cl A Analyst Estimates & Ratings – WSJ
Search result #3
Stock Price Target NU. High, $22.00. Median, $20.00. Low, $11.20. Average, $19.02. Current Price, $18.55. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & Ratings ...
Extracted: $22.00, $20.00, $11.20, $19.02, $18.55Open source
Nu Holdings Ltd.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 18 ; Last Close Price. 18.18USD ; Average target price. 19.82USD ; Spread / Average Target. +9.03%.
Extracted: $18.18, $19.82Open source
Nu Holdings Ltd (NU) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #5
According to projections from 18 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Nu Holdings is 19.82, with a high estimate of 22 and a low estimate of 17. What ...
Open source
Nu Holdings Ltd. Cl A Research & Ratings - Barron's
Search result #6
ConsensusBuyBuy. Stock Price Target. High, $22.00. Low, $11.20. Average, $18.86. Current Price, $18.04. NU will report FY 2025 earnings on 02/25/2026. Yearly ...
Extracted: $22.00, $11.20, $18.86, $18.04Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-25
FY2025 earnings release
Company FY2025 results and guidance (expected catalyst for re-rating; consensus targets concentrated near $20 may repriced around release) [#SERP-6][#SERP-1].
Prob 60.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target convergence / revisions
2026-04-28
Ongoing analyst revisions around a tight median/consensus (median ~$18.86, high ~$22, low ~$11.2) could drive a near-term repricing if estimates shift materially [#SERP-1][#SERP-4].
Prob 30% • Move 8% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Latin America digital-banking scale-up
2027-01-28
Multi-year user and net-credit expansion across core markets could unlock higher multiple and revenue per user if execution continues (long horizon assumption; outcome depends on macro/credit cycle) [#SERP-4][#SERP-9].
Prob 25% • Move 35% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Credit deterioration in core LatAm markets
FX volatility impacting USD reporting
Intensifying competition from incumbent and global fintechs
Regulatory restrictions on fintech products/fees

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PYPL	Large digital-payments network; useful comp for payment volume trends and margin mix.
MELI	LatAm e‑commerce with Mercado Pago; comparable consumer‑fintech reach and wallet/credit products.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Nu Holdings Ltd Class A Common (NU) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-28

AI Stock Memo: NU - Nu - RankAlpha