AI Stock Memo: NI - NiSource - RankAlpha

NI

Rating buyAI Memo

NiSource

As of 2026-01-28/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Regulatory rate case decision window • 2026-09-30

Expected move: +0%

Biggest risk

Unfavorable regulatory rulings, prolonged weak volumes or higher-than-expected capex pushing leverage could compress multiples and depress share price toward analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $41 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Execution of approved rate-base projects, favorable regulatory outcomes, and steady gas volumes lead to re-rating toward the high analyst target; continued dividend support reinforces investor demand.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-28

Base target

$46

p=60%

Bull target

$53

p=20%

Bear target

$41

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 quarterly earnings release
Dividend and capital-allocation confirmation / multi-year rate-base growth realization
Execution of approved rate-base projects, favorable regulatory outcomes, and steady gas volumes lead to re-rating toward the high analyst target; continued dividend support reinforces investor demand.

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory rulings or delayed approvals
Execution or cost-overrun risks on major infrastructure projects
Rising interest rates or financing costs affecting capex returns

WatchKey bullets

Regulatory rate case decision window

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $46 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +14% / -11%

Vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base +0% · Bear -11%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $53 (p=20%)Base Target: $46 (p=60%)Bear Target: $41 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: consensus analyst targets sit modestly above the anchor with a tight high/low band, suggesting limited but positive upside [#SERP-1]. Recent aggregator snapshots show median targets near $46 and highs near $50–52, reflecting steady dividend and regulated cash-flow expectations [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Unfavorable regulatory rulings, prolonged weak volumes or higher-than-expected capex pushing leverage could compress multiples and depress share price toward analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 quarterly earnings release
Dividend and capital-allocation confirmation / multi-year rate-base growth realization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-28Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$46.38

Range (USD)

$41.00 - $52.50

Count

Query: NiSource Inc Common (NI) analyst consensus price target high low average

Nisource Inc (NI) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #1
The average price target is $47.24 with a high forecast of $50.00 and a low forecast of $41.88. The average price target represents a 8.82% change from the last ...
Extracted: $47.24, $50.00, $41.88Open source
Nisource Consensus Estimates (NI) - Investing.com NG
Search result #2
According to projections from 11 analysts, the average 12-month price target for NiSource is 46.36364, with a high estimate of 50 and a low estimate of 41.
Open source
NI Stock Forecast 2026 - NiSource Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #3
Based on our analysis of 21 Wall Street analysts, NI has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $47.00 (ranging from $41.00 to $50.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $47.00, $41.00, $50.00Open source
NiSource (NI) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #4
The highest price target for NI is $50.00, while the lowest price target for NI is $43.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 5.58% ...
Extracted: $50.00, $43.00Open source
NiSource, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #5
NISOURCE, INC. 43.93 $ +0.92%. Add to a list · Stock NI NISOURCE, INC. PDF ... Evolution of the Average Target: NiSource, Inc. Evolution of the Target ...
Open source
NI - NiSource Stock - Displayed [176 Analyst Price Targets] - AnaChart
Search result #6
Highest price target for NI is $50, Lowest price target is $43, average price target is $46.38. Most recent stock forecast was given by ROSS FOWLER from UBS on ...
Extracted: $50.00, $43.00, $46.38Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$53 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$46 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=20% prob

Price $46 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base +0% · Bear -11%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
Regulatory rate case decision window
Rate-case outcomes materially affect allowed returns and cash flow; assuming regulatory decision window ends by the selected date (assumption noted), potential re-rating if allowances differ from filing expectations [#SERP-1].
Prob 50.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 quarterly earnings release
2026-04-28
Quarterly results and guidance update; market reaction likely tied to regulated utility margin trends and weather-normalized volumes — consensus price-target context noted [#SERP-2]. Date estimated conservatively as Q1 window end.
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Dividend and capital-allocation confirmation / multi-year rate-base growth realization
2027-01-28
Ongoing dividend policy and execution of rate-base investments drive long-term cash returns and re-rate potential; outcome over next 12 months will affect yield-support narrative and valuation.
Prob 65% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Risks

Adverse regulatory rulings or delayed approvals
Execution or cost-overrun risks on major infrastructure projects
Rising interest rates or financing costs affecting capex returns
Significant deviations in weather-normalized gas volumes

Peers

Symbol	Summary
D	Dominion Energy — large regulated utility with comparable rate-case sensitivity and capital program exposure.
ES	Eversource Energy — Northeast regulated utility; similar regulated cash-flow stability and weather sensitivity.
PPL	PPL Corporation — rate-base growth focus and dividend-driven investor base, useful benchmark for capital-allocation expectations.
OGE	OGE Energy — regional regulated utility with comparable regulatory/retail gas exposure and capex cadence.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: NiSource Inc Common (NI) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-28