AI Stock Memo: OGE - OGE Energy - RankAlpha

OGE

AI Memo

OGE Energy

As of 2026-02-19/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly dividend announcement • 2026-05-20

Expected move: +0%

Biggest risk

Unfavorable rate-case rulings, higher financing costs, or sustained demand weakness would compress allowed returns and push shares toward the high-$30s.

Invalidation

Break below $40 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

If the capital program executes within guidance, regulators grant favorable returns, and load growth remains steady, shares can approach the low-$50s; dividend stability and modest margin expansion would support a multiple re-rating.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-19

Base target

$47

p=70%

Bull target

$54

p=15%

Bear target

$40

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings and guidance
Regulatory outcomes & capex execution
If the capital program executes within guidance, regulators grant favorable returns, and load growth remains steady, shares can approach the low-$50s; dividend stability and modest margin expansion would support a multiple re-rating.

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory rate-case ruling
Lower-than-expected electricity demand or weather-driven weakness
Rising interest rates increasing financing costs

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly dividend announcement

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $47 (p=70%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +0% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $54 (p=15%)Base Target: $47 (p=70%)Bear Target: $40 (p=15%)

Commentary

Consensus is neutral: medians cluster near the current price with modest upside to the mid-$50s and downside to the high-$30s. Dividend-focused buyers limit downside, while regulatory outcomes and financing costs remain the primary drivers of divergence.

As of 2026-02-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Unfavorable rate-case rulings, higher financing costs, or sustained demand weakness would compress allowed returns and push shares toward the high-$30s.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 earnings and guidance
Regulatory outcomes & capex execution

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-19Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$46.85

Range (USD)

$39.00 - $55.65

Count

Query: OGE Energy Corp Common (OGE) analyst consensus price target high low average

OGE Energy (OGE) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #1
Consensus Price Target According to the 10 analysts' twelve-month price targets for OGE Energy, the average price target is $47.13. The highest price target ...
Extracted: $47.13Open source
OGE Energy Corp.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 12 ; Last Close Price. 46.98USD ; Average target price. 46.15USD ; Spread / Average Target. -1.77%.
Extracted: $46.98, $46.15Open source
OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
Analyst Price Targets. 41.00 Low. 46.55 Average. 46.49 Current. 53.00 High ... Price Target 51 -> 49. View More. Statistics: OGE. View More. Valuation Measures.
Open source
OGE Energy Consensus Estimates (OGE) - Investing.com NG
Search result #4
OGE Energy has a potential Downside of -1.85%, based on analysts' average price target. How Has OGE Energy Stock Performed Over the Past 52 Weeks? The OGE ...
Open source
Oge Energy Corp. (OGE) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts ...
Search result #5
The average price target is $45.60 with a high forecast of $51.00 and a low forecast of $39.00. The average price target represents a -1.91% change from the ...
Extracted: $45.60, $51.00, $39.00Open source
OGE Energy Corp. (NYSE) - Share Price and News - Fintel
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for OGE Energy Corp. is $47.07. The forecasts range from a low of $39.39 to a high of $55.65. A stock's price target is the ...
Extracted: $47.07, $39.39, $55.65Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$54 / p=15% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$47 / p=70% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=15% prob

Price $47 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +0% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-20
Quarterly dividend announcement
Dividend declaration or ex-date typically follows the quarterly schedule and can influence yield-seeking flows and short-term support [#SERP-5].
Prob 85.00% • Move 2.00% • Priced-in 80.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 earnings and guidance
2026-05-20
Quarterly results and guidance revisions can move the stock; date estimated within a 90-day window [#SERP-1].
Prob 75% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Regulatory outcomes & capex execution
2027-02-19
Rate-case rulings, regulatory policy, and capex execution drive long-term earnings and allowed returns; timing estimated at 12 months [#SERP-2].
Prob 40% • Move 18% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Adverse regulatory rate-case ruling
Lower-than-expected electricity demand or weather-driven weakness
Rising interest rates increasing financing costs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NEE	Large regulated and renewable-focused utility with growth/scale exposure similar to OGE's regulated generation shift.
DUK	Investor-owned utility with broad regulated footprint and comparable sensitivity to rate decisions and interest rates.
SO	Large southern-regional utility; shares respond to similar regulatory and rate-cycle dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: OGE Energy Corp Common (OGE) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-19