AI Stock Memo: NDLS - Noodles - RankAlpha

NDLS

Rating sellAI Memo

Noodles

As of 2026-03-07/Confidence high/Horizon 3m

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

high

Horizon

Key catalyst

Earnings release — Mar 12, 2026 • 2026-03-12

Expected move: -84%

Biggest risk

Continued negative EPS, active downgrades, or liquidity/financing constraints push the share price into low-single-digit territory (bear target: $1.0).

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained EBITDA margin recovery, accelerating franchise conversions, or an outlier sale/upgrade could re-rate the stock toward the $14.0 outlier target.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

high

As of

2026-03-07

Base target

p=60%

Bull target

$14

p=15%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst re-rating to low/median
Operational recovery / margin gains
Sustained EBITDA margin recovery, accelerating franchise conversions, or an outlier sale/upgrade could re-rate the stock toward the $14.0 outlier target.

BearKey bullets

Consensus clustered at very low targets (median ~$1.84) that can accelerate downgrades [#SERP-1]
Earnings miss or weak guidance on 2026-03-12 [#SERP-10]
Liquidity or dilutive financing needs if losses continue

WatchKey bullets

Earnings release — Mar 12, 2026

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $2 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +22% / -91%

Vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base -84% · Bear -91%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $14 (p=15%)Base Target: $2 (p=60%)Bear Target: $1 (p=25%)

Commentary

Coverage is limited and skewed: most signals cluster at low one-year targets, biasing near-term expectations downward, while a few outliers create occasional headline-driven spikes. Near-term sentiment centers on the upcoming earnings print and any stabilization in same-store sales [#SERP-1][#SERP-10].

As of 2026-03-07 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained EBITDA margin recovery, accelerating franchise conversions, or an outlier sale/upgrade could re-rate the stock toward the $14.0 outlier target.

Bear Case

Continued negative EPS, active downgrades, or liquidity/financing constraints push the share price into low-single-digit territory (bear target: $1.0).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst re-rating to low/median
Operational recovery / margin gains

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-07Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$1.84

Range (USD)

$1.77 - $14.00

Count

Query: Noodles & Co Class A Common (NDLS) analyst consensus price target high low average

NDLS / Noodles & Company (NasdaqGS) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #1
The average one-year price target for Noodles & Company is $1.78. The forecasts range from a low of $1.77 to a high of $1.84. A stock's price target is the ...
Extracted: $1.78, $1.77, $1.84Open source
Noodles & Company (NDLS) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #2
See Noodles & Company (NDLS) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
Noodles & Co. (NDLS) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
Only one analyst offered a short-term price target of $24.00 for Noodles & Co. This represents an increase of 282.17% from the last closing price of $6.28.
Extracted: $24.00, $6.28Open source
Noodles & Co. (NDLS) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #4
NDLS Earnings Forecast. Next quarter's earnings estimate for NDLS is -$0.72 with a range of -$0.72 to -$0.72. The previous quarter's EPS was -$0.80.
Open source
Noodles & Company (NDLS) Stock Price, Quote, News & Analysis
Search result #5
Wall Street analysts rate NDLS as Neutral on average, for a Wall Street consensus of hold. ... The latest low revenue estimate is $494.7M and the high revenue ...
Extracted: $494.70Open source
NDLS Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target ...
Search result #6
NDLS has been analyzed by 1 analysts, with a consensus rating of Strong Buy. 100% of analysts recommend a Strong Buy, 0% recommend Buy, 0% suggest Holding, 0% ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=15% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=25% prob

Price $11 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 22%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base -84% · Bear -91%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-12
Earnings release — Mar 12, 2026
Q1 report expected before market on 2026-03-12; consensus previews another loss and this is the nearest-term re-rating and volatility catalyst [#SERP-10].
Prob 85.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst re-rating to low/median
2026-06-05
Street targets cluster at very low levels (median ~$1.84); downgrades or estimate cuts could push shares toward that range over the next quarter [#SERP-1].
Prob 60% • Move 35% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Operational recovery / margin gains
2027-03-07
Sustained cost savings, same-store-sales recovery or accelerated franchise growth could materially re-rate NDLS; this remains lower probability and execution-dependent [#SERP-5].
Prob 30% • Move 120% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Consensus clustered at very low targets (median ~$1.84) that can accelerate downgrades [#SERP-1]
Earnings miss or weak guidance on 2026-03-12 [#SERP-10]
Liquidity or dilutive financing needs if losses continue
Persistent traffic weakness and margin erosion from promotions

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SHAK	Fast-casual operator; useful comparator for brand strength and traffic sensitivity.
WING	Franchise-focused fast-casual peer; relevant for unit economics and off-premises mix.
TXRH	Casual-dining peer sensitive to same-store sales and labor cost pressure.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Noodles & Co Class A Common (NDLS) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-07