MARA

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

MARA

As of 2026-05-14/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Long Ridge closing and financing are the next hard proof point for the AI infrastructure pivot • 2026-11-30

Expected move: -3%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that the quarter reinforced how dependent the equity remains on bitcoin marks, treasury sales, and external financing rather than contracted AI cash flows. Revenue missed consensus, EPS was far worse than consensus in available coverage, and management is still asking investors to underwrite Long Ridge and broader AI monetization before signed tenant contracts are visible. Limited post-print analyst revision breadth keeps this from becoming a strong revision-cycle long thesis.

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The best post-print bull read is that most of the Q1 damage was driven by bitcoin fair-value marks rather than a collapse in operating scale: energized hashrate reached 72.2 EH/s, cost per petahash per day improved 3%, and MARA still had about $2.9 billion of combined cash and digital assets plus roughly $1.5 billion of remaining ATM capacity at March 31. Rosenblatt reiterated Buy with a $15 target after the print, showing at least some support for the view that operating scale plus infrastructure optionality can outweigh the ugly quarter over time.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-14

Base target

$14

p=45%

Bull target

$17

p=30%

Bear target

$10

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings reset keeps MARA in a monitoring range
AI and critical-IT monetization still needs tenant contracts, not just powered-land narrative
The best post-print bull read is that most of the Q1 damage was driven by bitcoin fair-value marks rather than a collapse in operating scale: energized hashrate reached 72.2 EH/s, cost per petahash per day improved 3%, and MARA still had about $2.9 billion of combined cash and digital assets plus roughly $1.5 billion of remaining ATM capacity at March 31.

BearKey bullets

AI and critical-IT monetization still lacks disclosed tenant contracts, utilization commitments, or revenue bridge data sufficient to offset mining volatility.
Bitcoin price sensitivity remains extreme; the 10-Q says every large move in BTC can materially swing fair value and Q1 included about a $1.0 billion digital-asset mark.
Long Ridge adds financing, regulatory, and termination risk, including a Barclays bridge facility and a potential $75.0 million termination fee if the deal fails under certain conditions.

WatchKey bullets

Long Ridge closing and financing are the next hard proof point for the AI infrastructure pivot

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $14 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +18% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base -3% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=30%)Base Target: $14 (p=45%)Bear Target: $10 (p=25%)

Commentary

News flow is loud and mostly negative after the May 11, 2026 earnings release because coverage focused on the revenue miss, the $1.3 billion net loss, and the $1.5 billion BTC sale. Immediate reaction coverage described the stock as down after results, but the May 13, 2026 anchor price of $12.75 suggests the initial selloff did not become a full disorderly unwind by T+2. Analyst follow-through is still thin: Rosenblatt reiterated Buy/$15 and available coverage also points to a Hold-level response from Clear Street, but the revision set is not broad enough to claim a strong positive estimate-reset cycle yet. This is still a cautious post-earnings monitoring setup, not a clean momentum recovery.

As of 2026-05-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings reset keeps MARA in a monitoring range
AI and critical-IT monetization still needs tenant contracts, not just powered-land narrative

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=25% prob

Price $14 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base -3% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.35

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-11-30
Long Ridge closing and financing are the next hard proof point for the AI infrastructure pivot
The 10-Q says MARA agreed on April 29, 2026 to acquire Long Ridge for about $1.5 billion, including assumed debt, with a Barclays bridge facility of up to $785.0 million, while regulatory approvals and a potential $75.0 million termination fee keep execution risk live. If the deal closes on reasonable terms, MARA adds a 485 MW plant expected to rise to 505 MW in H2 2026 plus adjacent land and existing cash flow; if approvals or financing wobble, the AI rerating case weakens. [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Prob 60.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings reset keeps MARA in a monitoring range
2026-05-20
Q1 2026 revenue fell 18% to $174.6 million and diluted EPS was a loss of $3.31, with the quarter also including a roughly $1.0 billion fair-value loss on digital assets. Management said the company sold 20,880 BTC for $1.5 billion in Q1, ended March with 35,303 BTC, and is using restructuring and capital actions to fund the pivot. That keeps the near-term debate centered on whether the weak print and bitcoin monetization are mostly digested or still a source of downside. [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Prob 85% • Move 8% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AI and critical-IT monetization still needs tenant contracts, not just powered-land narrative
2026-09-30
Management framed Q1 as a transition quarter and said the work ahead is to convert strategy into signed contracts and contracted megawatts. The shareholder letter describes active tenant discussions, a low-cost powered site, and annualized savings of $12 million from a 15% workforce reduction, but the market still lacks disclosed tenants, utilization, and revenue commitments large enough to offset MARA's bitcoin-linked earnings volatility. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Prob 35% • Move 22% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

AI and critical-IT monetization still lacks disclosed tenant contracts, utilization commitments, or revenue bridge data sufficient to offset mining volatility.
Bitcoin price sensitivity remains extreme; the 10-Q says every large move in BTC can materially swing fair value and Q1 included about a $1.0 billion digital-asset mark.
Long Ridge adds financing, regulatory, and termination risk, including a Barclays bridge facility and a potential $75.0 million termination fee if the deal fails under certain conditions.
MARA sold about 20,880 BTC for $1.5 billion in Q1 and may continue selling bitcoin, which helps liquidity but can cap upside to the treasury optionality narrative.
Restructuring and workforce reduction may lower costs, but they also signal that the operating model is still being reshaped during an already volatile transition.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RIOT	Riot is a close operating peer because it combines large-scale bitcoin mining with explicit AI/HPC evaluation of power assets, making it a cleaner read-through for whether cheap power and data-center optionality can earn a rerating.
CLSK	CleanSpark is the cleaner pure-mining comp and is useful mainly as a benchmark for mining execution, fleet efficiency, and treasury discipline rather than AI optionality.
IREN	IREN is a stronger hybrid benchmark because it already has more concrete AI-cloud commercialization evidence, highlighting the proof gap MARA still needs to close.
BTDR	Bitdeer is relevant because it is also trying to show value beyond mining scale, making it a useful reference for whether diversified compute revenue becomes visible in reported results.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-14

AI Stock Memo: MARA - MARA - RankAlpha