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MARA

MARAF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Hashrate reached 70.3 EH/s, up 22% year over year, while cost per petahash per day improved 4%. Successful conversion of power assets into contracted AI/HPC capacity could create material upside, but this remains unproven.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
AI/HPC plans lack disclosed tenants, utilization, contracted economics, and clear capex timing.
Momentum
14
Value
35
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $18.00
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +6.7
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d -60.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -60.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI/HPC plans lack disclosed tenants, utilization, contracted economics, and clear capex timing.
  • • BTC loaning, collateral pledges, and sales create liquidity, counterparty, and dilution-related risks.
  • • Revenue contracted, adjusted EBITDA turned negative, bitcoin mark-to-market losses were material, energy cost per BTC increased, and the business remains exposed to bitcoin prices, treasury sales, dilution, and execution risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 earnings reset the near-term thesis

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.7
Δ21d
+10.2
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
37
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-60.6
Δ21d
-60.6
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 14.4 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 37.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.75B
Beta
5.57
Shares Out
386.3M
P/E (TTM)
5.6
P/S (TTM)
4.36
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-13.01
Rev YoY
-26.7%
EPS YoY
-186.9%
Gross Margin
-75.6%
Op Margin
-122.8%
Net Debt
$3.08B
Current Ratio
0.89
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data