AI Stock Memo: KBH - KB Home - RankAlpha

KBH

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

KB Home

As of 2026-03-25/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 FY2026 results & updated guidance were released (press release / 8-K) • 2026-03-24

Expected move: +21%

Biggest risk

Continued demand softness and any additional guidance cuts compress deliveries and margins; elevated macro/geopolitical risk keeps buyers cautious, driving multiple contraction and downside toward the low-$40s.

Invalidation

Break below $46 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

KB Home rehits margin expansion via pricing/mix, tight community-level inventory and stable financing; deliveries stabilize and investor sentiment recovers, pushing the stock toward the analyst high (~$82–$83).

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-25

Base target

$62

p=55%

Bull target

$80

p=20%

Bear target

$46

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly results / guidance update (Q2 FY2026) — management may revise FY26 delivery/guidance
Operating leverage from market-specific order and delivery mix / pricing actions (company-level margin recovery)
KB Home rehits margin expansion via pricing/mix, tight community-level inventory and stable financing; deliveries stabilize and investor sentiment recovers, pushing the stock toward the analyst high (~$82–$83).

BearKey bullets

Commodity or labor cost inflation pressuring margins
Further downward revision to FY26 delivery/guidance
Geopolitical risk depressing buyer confidence

WatchKey bullets

Q1 FY2026 results & updated guidance were released (press release / 8-K)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $62 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +55% / -11%

Vs latest close: Bull +55% · Base +21% · Bear -11%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $80 (p=20%)Base Target: $62 (p=55%)Bear Target: $46 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone around the March 24 Q1 release was cautious; headlines highlight guidance cuts and margin pressure which translated into near-term selling [#PR-undated] [#8-K-2026-03-24]. Analyst consensus remains in a 'hold' range with median ~61.42, indicating mixed convictions among broker models [#SERP-1]. Investor focus will be on next-quarter guidance and delivery cadence for signs of durable demand or further weakness [#SERP-9].

As of 2026-03-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly results / guidance update (Q2 FY2026) — management may revise FY26 delivery/guidance
Operating leverage from market-specific order and delivery mix / pricing actions (company-level margin recovery)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$61.42

Range (USD)

$21.21 - $82.95

Count

Query: KB Home Common (KBH) analyst consensus price target high low average

KB Home (KBH) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 13 analysts, the average 12-month price target for KB Home is 61.42 USD, with a high estimate of 79 USD and a low estimate of ...
Extracted: $61.42, $79.00Open source
KB Home: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #2
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 15 ; Last Close Price. 54.84USD ; Average target price. 61.42USD ; Spread / Average Target. +11.99%.
Extracted: $54.84, $61.42Open source
KBH / KB Home (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target, Estimates ... - Fintel
Search result #4
The average one-year price target for KB Home is $62.16. The forecasts range from a low of $50.50 to a high of $82.95. Read More.
Extracted: $62.16, $50.50, $82.95Open source
KBH | KB Home Analyst Forecasts - Quiver Quantitative
Search result #5
The median price target is $62.00 with a high estimate of $77.00 and a low estimate of $50.00. The median price target is a 17.09% change from the last price of ...
Extracted: $62.00, $77.00, $50.00Open source
Kb Home Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy KBH? - StockInvest.us
Search result #6
The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.530. We will update the financials statements for KB Home, that can be found here as soon ...
Open source
KB Home (KBH) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets
Search result #8
Stock Price Forecast ... The 10 analysts that cover KB Home stock have a consensus rating of "Hold" and an average price target of $61.7, which forecasts a 20.63% ...
Extracted: $61.70Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$80 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$62 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$46 / p=25% prob

Price $51 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +55% · Base +21% · Bear -11%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-24
Q1 FY2026 results & updated guidance were released (press release / 8-K)
KB Home issued an 8-K/press release reporting results for the quarter ended Feb 28, 2026 and commentary on near-term demand/guidance; market reaction tied to margin and delivery cadence commentary [#8-K-2026-03-24] [#PR-undated].
Prob 95.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly results / guidance update (Q2 FY2026) — management may revise FY26 delivery/guidance
2026-06-24
Following the Q1 release, the next quarterly earnings release (typical cadence ~90 days) is the next company-specific opportunity for updated delivery guidance, margin outlook, and any further cuts or recoveries in homebuilding revenue; prior 8-K confirms Q1 disclosure and establishes this cadence [#8-K-2026-03-24]. (Assumed earnings-release date used for planning.)
Prob 75% • Move 10% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Operating leverage from market-specific order and delivery mix / pricing actions (company-level margin recovery)
2027-03-25
KB Home's 10-K details its operating footprint and build/delivery model across 49 markets; management has signaled (press release) actions to manage traffic, pricing/mix and community cadence that could drive unit-margin improvement over the next 12 months [#10-K-2026-01-23] [#PR-undated].
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Commodity or labor cost inflation pressuring margins
Further downward revision to FY26 delivery/guidance
Geopolitical risk depressing buyer confidence
Worsening mortgage rates or buyer sentiment

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MTH	Meritage Homes — national homebuilder with similar exposure to single-family deliveries and pricing/mix sensitivity; useful operating and margin comparator.
MHO	M/I Homes — comparable regional/national delivery cadence and market-cycle sensitivity; peer for order trends and leverage.
PII	Polaris — consumer durables peer with different product mix but comparable exposure to retail demand cycles and margin pressure dynamics (used for consumer-cycle context).

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: KB Home Common (KBH) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-25