GRBK

AI Memo

Green Brick Partners

As of 2026-02-26/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +5%

Biggest risk

Sustained high mortgage rates, weaker demand, and increased carry or construction costs compress volumes and margins, pushing valuation toward analyst lows absent a meaningful macro or execution recovery.

Invalidation

Break below $62 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Accelerating absorption, easing mortgage rates, and sustained G&A leverage drive margin expansion and a multiple re-rating. Market-share gains and efficient lot rotation lift EPS above consensus, supporting upside toward the bull scenario.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-26

Base target

$71

p=55%

Bull target

$95

p=20%

Bear target

$62

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Next quarterly earnings release
Housing market recovery / seasonal demand through next year

BearKey bullets

Construction cost or labor inflation compressing margins
Geographic concentration risk in specific local markets
Mortgage rate spikes reducing buyer affordability

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 78.94, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-26T18:44:25+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Method/assumptions: scenario targets use the authoritative anchor above; base target equals the analyst median and reflects consensus risk (analyst median: 71.00, low: 62.00, high: 79.49) [#SERP-7][#SERP-3].

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $71 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +40% / -8%

Vs latest close: Bull +40% · Base +5% · Bear -8%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $95 (p=20%)Base Target: $71 (p=55%)Bear Target: $62 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is cautious to neutral: consensus price targets cluster below the current broker last price, indicating analyst conservatism [#SERP-3][#SERP-2]. Retail and institutional views appear mixed, with recent headlines focused on guidance and volume risk [#SERP-1]. Short-term tone centers on earnings and analyst updates ahead of seasonal demand periods [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-02-26 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Next quarterly earnings release
Housing market recovery / seasonal demand through next year

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-26Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$71.00

Range (USD)

$62.00 - $79.49

Count

Query: Green Brick Partners Inc Common (GRBK) analyst consensus price target high low average

Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) Stock Price, News, ...
Search result #1
Analyst Insights: GRBK. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 62.00 Low. 62.00 ... company based on insider trading. 0 Low. Sector Avg.
Open source
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Price Targets
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $62.00 to a high of $71.00. The average price target represents a decline of 10.64% from the last closing price of $74.42.
Extracted: $62.00, $71.00, $74.42Open source
Consensus Green Brick Partners, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 3 ; Last Close Price. 79.49USD ; Average target price. 62.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. -22.00%.
Extracted: $79.49, $62.00Open source
Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK) Stock Forecast, Price ...
Search result #4
High $493M. Consensus $473M. Low $459M. GRBK Sales Forecast. Next quarter's sales forecast for GRBK is $473.25M with a range of $458.90M to $493.01M. The ...
Extracted: $493.00, $473.00, $459.00, $473.25, $458.90, $493.01Open source
GRBK Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price ...
Search result #5
Financial analysts have set a price target of $71, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $71.00Open source
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #6
According to the 3 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Green Brick Partners, the average price target is $66.00. The highest price target for GRBK is ...
Extracted: $66.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$95 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$71 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$62 / p=25% prob

Price $68 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +40% · Base +5% · Bear -8%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
2026-04-30
Street price targets (range noted in public summaries) may be revised following quarter results or new guidance; implied downside in many consensus figures has been reported [#SERP-2][#SERP-6].
Prob 55% • Move -8% • Priced-in 70%
Next quarterly earnings release
2026-05-27
Upcoming quarterly results could materially move the share price as guidance and margin commentary will update investor expectations; market consensus and target revisions have trended lower recently [#SERP-7][#SERP-2].
Prob 65% • Move 10% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Housing market recovery / seasonal demand through next year
2027-02-26
A sustained improvement in mortgage rates and spring/summer demand could support higher volume and price realization over the next 12 months; date is the 1-year horizon endpoint (assumption: market re‑acceleration window) [#SERP-4].
Prob 45% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Construction cost or labor inflation compressing margins
Geographic concentration risk in specific local markets
Mortgage rate spikes reducing buyer affordability
Negative analyst revisions or downward guidance surprises

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DHI	Large national homebuilder with diversified geographic exposure; useful comp for volume and margin cycle comparisons.
LEN	National builder with scale in multiple price bands; sensitive to mortgage rate swings and commodity costs.
PHM	High-volume builder with focus on land cadence and community absorption; a cross-check on demand trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Green Brick Partners Inc Common (GRBK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-26

AI Stock Memo: GRBK - Green Brick Partners - RankAlpha