B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
GRBK
Green Brick PartnersBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Accelerating absorption, easing mortgage rates, and sustained G&A leverage drive margin expansion and a multiple re-rating. Market-share gains and efficient lot rotation lift EPS above consensus, supporting upside toward the bull scenario.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.6.
What can break
Construction cost or labor inflation compressing margins
Momentum
59
Value
60
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $71.00 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-02-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $72.00
Why
Momentum59 · Δ7d +7.7
Value60 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +7.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Construction cost or labor inflation compressing margins
- • Geographic concentration risk in specific local markets
- • Sustained high mortgage rates, weaker demand, and increased carry or construction costs compress volumes and margins, pushing valuation toward analyst lows absent a meaningful macro or execution recovery.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-30
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
59
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+7.7
Δ21d
+28.3
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-5.3
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
+0.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 59.3 / Value 60.4 / Sentiment 72.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$71.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.05B
Beta
1.99
Shares Out
43.01M
P/E (TTM)
8.3
P/S (TTM)
1.31
P/FCF (TTM)
17.87
Rev YoY
-8.7%
EPS YoY
-8.4%
Gross Margin
+30.7%
Op Margin
+19.5%
Net Debt
$137.93M
Current Ratio
8.99
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data