B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$79.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GRBK
Green Brick PartnersANYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Green Brick's 19% second-quarter order growth, backlog growth, 29.8% homebuilding gross margin and low net homebuilding debt support upside if closings and margins remain resilient [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.8.
What can break
Affordability pressure could require continued incentives, reducing margin even if orders remain firm [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
27
Value
61
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $69.00 · Bull $79.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-10-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $65.00
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d +2.4
Value61 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -2.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Affordability pressure could require continued incentives, reducing margin even if orders remain firm [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
- • An August 27 filing reports Brandler's resignation and states it was not due to a disagreement over company operations, policies or practices; the filing alone does not establish an operating impact [#8-K-2026-08-27].
- • The 9% incentive rate on new orders and a 150-basis-point year-over-year margin decline show the cost of sustaining sales pace; weaker recent results at direct peers add caution [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28
October 28 third-quarter results
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-7.1
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
71
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-0.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 27.1 / Value 61.0 / Sentiment 70.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$69.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.76B
Beta
1.99
Shares Out
43.01M
P/E (TTM)
8.3
P/S (TTM)
1.31
P/FCF (TTM)
17.87
Rev YoY
-8.7%
EPS YoY
-8.4%
Gross Margin
+30.7%
Op Margin
+19.5%
Net Debt
$137.93M
Current Ratio
8.99
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data