AI Stock Memo: HWBK - Hawthorn Bancshares - RankAlpha

HWBK

Rating neutralAI Memo

Hawthorn Bancshares

As of 2026-04-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 earnings confirmation is the key missing near-term input • 2026-04-29

Expected move: -8%

Biggest risk

Forward visibility is the main problem. For this T+3 follow-up, no Q1 2026 company earnings source was confirmed as of 2026-04-29, so there is no verified surprise, guidance, or management commentary to validate continuation of the 2025 improvement. Credit also was not clean enough to ignore: non-performing assets were $7.0 million and 0.47% of loans at 2025 year-end versus 0.29% a year earlier, and Q4 charge-offs included one reserved commercial relationship [#10-K-2026-03-05].

Invalidation

Break below $30 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The best supported fundamental read-through is still from year-end 2025: net income rose to $23.8 million from $18.3 million, EPS increased to $3.43 from $2.61, net interest margin improved to 3.89% from 3.41%, deposits and loans both grew modestly, and capital ratios remained well above well-capitalized thresholds [#10-K-2026-03-05]. The January dividend increase and remaining repurchase authorization reinforce shareholder-return support [#8-K-2026-01-28] [#10-K-2026-03-05].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-29

Base target

$34

p=50%

Bull target

$37

p=25%

Bear target

$30

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Capital return support remains visible after dividend step-up
Repurchase capacity and capital strength could cushion downside if operations stay stable
The best supported fundamental read-through is still from year-end 2025: net income rose to $23.8 million from $18.3 million, EPS increased to $3.43 from $2.61, net interest margin improved to 3.89% from 3.41%, deposits and loans both grew modestly, and capital ratios remained well above well-capitalized thresholds [#10-K-2026-03-05].

BearKey bullets

Analyst revision and target-change signals are unavailable in the packet, which lowers conviction and makes market-readthrough noisier.
As of 2026-04-29, a late-April 2026 earnings 8-K or investor-relations release was not confirmed in the checked primary company filings, leaving the post-earnings setup under-documented.
Asset quality weakened year over year at 2025 year-end, with non-performing assets rising to $7.0 million and 0.47% of loans from 0.29% a year earlier [#10-K-2026-03-05].

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings confirmation is the key missing near-term input

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $34 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: 0% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull 0% · Base -8% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $37 (p=25%)Base Target: $34 (p=50%)Bear Target: $30 (p=25%)

Commentary

This remains a cautious monitoring memo, not a high-conviction post-earnings call. The packet’s news is stale and thin, and the scheduled T+3 follow-up appears to have arrived before a verifiable Q1 2026 company earnings source was available. On 2026-04-29, HWBK traded at about $33.17 versus the 2026-04-28 anchor close of $34.57, a roughly 4.1% decline, but without a confirmed company filing or trusted coverage tying that move to results, the reaction should be treated as unconfirmed rather than definitive sentiment evidence.

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Capital return support remains visible after dividend step-up
Repurchase capacity and capital strength could cushion downside if operations stay stable

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$37 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=25% prob

Price $37 as of 2026-06-10

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull 0% · Base -8% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-29
Q1 2026 earnings confirmation is the key missing near-term input
This follow-up run was scheduled for earnings dated 2026-04-28, but as of 2026-04-29 no late-April 2026 earnings 8-K or IR release was identified in the checked SEC company filings, leaving investors without primary-source confirmation on whether the 2025 exit trends in margin, deposits and credit held into Q1; the 2025 baseline being tested was improved profitability and capital strength in the latest annual report [#10-K-2026-03-05].
Prob 55.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Capital return support remains visible after dividend step-up
2026-07-01
Management entered 2026 with a higher quarterly dividend after the board approved a $0.21 per share payout, up 5% from the prior quarterly dividend, which helps support the income case for a thinly covered community bank [#8-K-2026-01-28].
Prob 78% • Move 3% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Repurchase capacity and capital strength could cushion downside if operations stay stable
2026-12-31
Hawthorn ended 2025 well capitalized, repurchased 100,358 shares during 2025, and still had $8.4 million available under its repurchase plan, creating a tangible capital-allocation backstop if management keeps earnings and credit quality intact [#10-K-2026-03-05].
Prob 64% • Move 6% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Analyst revision and target-change signals are unavailable in the packet, which lowers conviction and makes market-readthrough noisier.
As of 2026-04-29, a late-April 2026 earnings 8-K or investor-relations release was not confirmed in the checked primary company filings, leaving the post-earnings setup under-documented.
Asset quality weakened year over year at 2025 year-end, with non-performing assets rising to $7.0 million and 0.47% of loans from 0.29% a year earlier [#10-K-2026-03-05].
FHLB advances and other borrowings increased 25.2% year over year to $102.1 million at December 31, 2025, so funding mix and liquidity costs still warrant monitoring [#10-K-2026-03-05].
Fourth-quarter 2025 net charge-offs were elevated by one commercial relationship that had been reserved in a prior period, a reminder that small-bank credit outcomes can stay idiosyncratic [#10-K-2026-03-05].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BPRN	Closest direct peer candidate from the packet by sector and market cap; more relevant comp than broad financials for community-bank deposit, credit and capital comparisons.
CFFI	Small-cap bank peer candidate from the packet that is more comparable on business mix and size than card or diversified finance names.
FCCO	Another direct bank peer candidate from the packet; useful for framing valuation and credit/funding expectations in small community banks.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-29