HWBK

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Hawthorn Bancshares

As of 2026-07-28/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-earnings digestion of Q1 profitability improvement • 2026-08-28

Expected move: +5%

Biggest risk

Loans and deposits contracted sequentially, non-performing assets to loans rose to 0.47% from 0.21% year over year, and the July earnings trigger lacks confirmed Q2 results. Low coverage increases the risk of delayed price discovery and weak forward visibility.

Invalidation

Break below $35 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q1 showed strong year-over-year earnings growth, better NIM, lower deposit costs, improved efficiency, and well-capitalized status. The deterministic prior is positive, with expected returns of 6.55% over 20 days and 10.49% over 60 days.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-07-28

Base target

$41

p=50%

Bull target

$44

p=25%

Bear target

$35

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Muted post-print market reaction
Capital and book-value support
Q1 showed strong year-over-year earnings growth, better NIM, lower deposit costs, improved efficiency, and well-capitalized status.

BearKey bullets

Low coverage and limited peer data reduce confidence in valuation and forward estimates.
Margin gains may weaken if asset yields fall faster than deposit and borrowing costs.
No confirmed Q2 earnings release, guidance, consensus surprise, transcript, or analyst revision was available in the packet.

WatchKey bullets

Post-earnings digestion of Q1 profitability improvement

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $41 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +13% / -11%

Vs latest close: Bull +13% · Base +5% · Bear -11%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $44 (p=25%)Base Target: $41 (p=50%)Bear Target: $35 (p=25%)

Commentary

News tone is mixed: Q1 operating results were materially improved, while reported post-print share performance was modestly negative. Social coverage, analyst targets, options data, and post-Q2 analyst revisions are unavailable; the scheduled T3 trigger is not itself evidence of a confirmed Q2 print.

As of 2026-07-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Muted post-print market reaction
Capital and book-value support

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=25% prob

Price $39 as of 2026-07-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +13% · Base +5% · Bear -11%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-28
Post-earnings digestion of Q1 profitability improvement
The confirmed Q1 2026 SEC earnings exhibit reported net income of $6.8 million, EPS of $0.98, FTE NIM of 4.07%, and an improved efficiency ratio of 60.46%. Loans and deposits declined sequentially, so follow-through depends on sustaining funding-cost and margin benefits. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29]
Prob 70.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 55.00%
EVENT2026-10-26
Q2 earnings confirmation gap
The queue identifies a July 23, 2026 post-earnings follow-up, but the packet contains no confirmed Q2 company release, transcript, consensus comparison, guidance update, or analyst revision. Treat the event as unresolved rather than as a reported beat or miss.
Prob 35.00% • Move 0.00% • Priced-in 0.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Muted post-print market reaction
2026-08-15
A Zacks report said shares had declined 1.4% since the Q1 report despite stronger earnings, indicating that the operating improvement was not fully rewarded by the market. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-07]
Prob 55% • Move 3% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital and book-value support
2026-12-31
Q1 results showed total risk-based capital of 15.91% and book value per share of $25.58, up 16.4% year over year. This may support downside resilience, conditional on stable credit quality and continued earnings execution. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29]
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Low coverage and limited peer data reduce confidence in valuation and forward estimates.
Margin gains may weaken if asset yields fall faster than deposit and borrowing costs.
No confirmed Q2 earnings release, guidance, consensus surprise, transcript, or analyst revision was available in the packet.
Non-performing assets increased year over year, creating credit and reserve risk.
Sequential loan and deposit contraction could limit future net interest income growth.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ATLO	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; the packet provides no validated operating comparison.
CFFI	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; the packet provides no validated operating comparison.
FBLA	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; the packet provides no validated operating comparison.
FXNC	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; the packet provides no validated operating comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-07-28

AI Stock Memo: HWBK - Hawthorn Bancshares - RankAlpha