FBLA

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

FB Bancorp

As of 2026-03-19/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

8-K filed on March 2, 2026 — potential corporate actions disclosed • 2026-03-02

Expected move: -9%

Biggest risk

Slower-than-expected loan growth, renewed credit stress, or ineffective buyback execution compresses earnings and pushes valuation toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Repurchase program execution plus sustained NIM expansion and reserve stabilization leads to earnings upgrade and multiple re-rating toward payments/fee-tilted peers, supporting upside to the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-19

Base target

$14

p=55%

Bull target

$16

p=20%

Bear target

$12

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Credit/reserve and NIM trajectory from FY-2025 results and ongoing quarterly trends
Repurchase program execution plus sustained NIM expansion and reserve stabilization leads to earnings upgrade and multiple re-rating toward payments/fee-tilted peers, supporting upside to the bull target.
ANCHOR: {"price": 13.11, "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-18T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true My base target (14.20) is near the analyst median (13.17) and within the reported analyst range (low 9.81 — high 14.21); bull reflects successful buyback + multiple expansion, bear reflects credit or execution setbacks.

BearKey bullets

Credit/reserve deterioration
Execution risk on repurchase program
Interest-rate or funding-cost pressure

WatchKey bullets

8-K filed on March 2, 2026 — potential corporate actions disclosed

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +2% / -26%

Vs latest close: Bull +2% · Base -9% · Bear -26%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $16 (p=20%)Base Target: $14 (p=55%)Bear Target: $12 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: recent public filings and press coverage highlight an announced repurchase program and improving FY-2025 earnings, but investor focus remains on execution and credit trends [#8-K-2026-03-02] [#10-K-2025-03-27]. Analysts show tight target dispersion around the current price, indicating modest consensus upside but sensitivity to short-term catalysts [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-03-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Slower-than-expected loan growth, renewed credit stress, or ineffective buyback execution compresses earnings and pushes valuation toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Credit/reserve and NIM trajectory from FY-2025 results and ongoing quarterly trends

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-19Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$13.17

Range (USD)

$9.81 - $14.21

Count

Query: FB Bancorp Inc Common (FBLA) analyst consensus price target high low average

FBLA | FB Bancorp Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings - WSJ
Search result #4
FB Bancorp Inc. analyst ratings, historical stock prices, earnings estimates & actuals. FBLA updated stock price target ... Low. Average. Current Price, $13.23 ...
Extracted: $13.23Open source
FB Bancorp (FBLA) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
View FB Bancorp stock forecast data, including FBLA stock price estimates and 12-month FB Bancorp price targets, to assess potential upside or downside.
Open source
FB Bancorp Inc (FBLA) Stock Forecast & Price Target - GuruFocus
Search result #3
Based on the one year price targets offered by 44 analysts, the average target price for FB Bancorp Inc is $284.42 with a high estimate of $350.00 and a low ...
Extracted: $284.42, $350.00Open source
Fb Bancorp . Common Stock Stock Forecast - StockInvest.us
Search result #5
The 52-week high for Fb Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock Stock is $13.91 and the 52-week low is $9.81.
Extracted: $13.91, $9.81Open source
FBLA | FB Bancorp Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #6
N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, N/A. Median, N/A. Low, N/A. Average, N/A. Current Price, $13.10. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. FBLA will report earnings on. High ...
Extracted: $13.10Open source
FBLA Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #7
The price of FBLA shares has decreased $0.09 since the market last closed. This is a 0.68% drop. Closed at $13.11.
Extracted: $13.11Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=25% prob

Price $16 as of 2026-07-28

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +2% · Base -9% · Bear -26%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-02
8-K filed on March 2, 2026 — potential corporate actions disclosed
FB Bancorp filed a Form 8-K dated March 1, 2026 (filed 2026-03-02); review of the 8-K may reveal corporate actions (capital return, amendments, or board decisions) that could move the stock on confirmation/implementation [#8-K-2026-03-02].
Prob 75.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-06-17
Execution/announcement of February 2026 share repurchase program (monitor for buybacks)
Media reports show FB Bancorp authorized a share repurchase program on Feb 9, 2026; the company's 8-K filing window around early March may formalize program details and timing — successful repurchase execution or reported buybacks would be a near-term capital-return driver [#8-K-2026-03-02] [#SERP-1].
Prob 60.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Credit/reserve and NIM trajectory from FY-2025 results and ongoing quarterly trends
2027-03-19
FY-2025 results and subsequent quarterly disclosures suggest improving profitability (FY-2025 EPS improvement cited in public updates); if the bank sustains reserve releases or NIM improvement across 2026, it supports multiple expansion and earnings re-rating [#10-K-2025-03-27] [#10-Q-2025-11-12].
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Credit/reserve deterioration
Execution risk on repurchase program
Interest-rate or funding-cost pressure

Peers

Symbol	Summary
COF	Regional / consumer lending focus and card exposure make it a capital-return and NIM comparator for capital-allocation and fee trends.
AXP	Payments and card-centric franchise; useful for fee income and payments-volume sensitivity comparison.
V	Payments network with strong fee dynamics; helps isolate payments/fee recovery trends versus lending-driven NIM changes.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: FB Bancorp Inc Common (FBLA) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-19

AI Stock Memo: FBLA - FB Bancorp - RankAlpha