HCC

Rating buyAI Memo

Warrior Met Coal

As of 2026-02-14/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions and coverage updates • 2026-05-15

Expected move: -16%

Biggest risk

Weaker steel demand, collapsing met‑coal prices or rising costs compress margins and capital returns, driving valuation toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $73 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained met‑coal price rally, robust cash conversion and continued buybacks/dividends drive re‑rating toward analyst highs.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-14

Base target

$93

p=60%

Bull target

$120

p=20%

Bear target

$73

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Upcoming quarterly earnings release and guidance
Metallurgical coal market recovery / seaborne demand
Sustained met‑coal price rally, robust cash conversion and continued buybacks/dividends drive re‑rating toward analyst highs.

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades driving short-term selling pressure
Operational disruptions or cost inflation at key mines
Sharp decline in steel demand reducing met-coal prices

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions and coverage updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $93 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +9% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base -16% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $120 (p=20%)Base Target: $93 (p=60%)Bear Target: $73 (p=20%)

Commentary

Tone is cautiously constructive: recent analyst activity skews modestly bullish versus the anchor, but broad target dispersion signals mixed conviction and high sensitivity to coal-price moves.

As of 2026-02-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained met‑coal price rally, robust cash conversion and continued buybacks/dividends drive re‑rating toward analyst highs.

Bear Case

Weaker steel demand, collapsing met‑coal prices or rising costs compress margins and capital returns, driving valuation toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Upcoming quarterly earnings release and guidance
Metallurgical coal market recovery / seaborne demand

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$92.88

Range (USD)

$72.72 - $120.00

Count

Query: Warrior Met Coal Inc Common (HCC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 6 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Warrior Met Coal is 101.67, with a high estimate of 120 and a low estimate of 80 ...
Open source
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 7 ; Last Close Price. 90.31USD ; Average target price. 101.67USD ; Spread / Average Target. +12.58%.
Extracted: $90.31, $101.67Open source
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Stock Price, News, Quote & ...
Search result #3
WARRIOR MET COAL INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $97.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Low; a Safety ...
Extracted: $97.00Open source
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Price Targets - Zacks
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $80.00 to a high of $120.00. The average price target represents an increase of 18.82% from the last closing price of $86.09.
Extracted: $80.00, $120.00, $86.09Open source
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE) - Share Price and News - Fintel
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $72.72 to a high of $105.00. A stock's price target is the price at which analysts consider it fairly valued with respect to ...
Extracted: $72.72, $105.00Open source
Warrior Met Coal Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:HCC
Search result #6
Warrior Met Coal Inc has a consensus price target of $83.38 based on the ratings of 9 analysts. The high is $120 issued by Jefferies on January 20, 2026.
Extracted: $83.38, $120.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$120 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$93 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$73 / p=20% prob

Price $110 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base -16% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-15
Analyst target revisions and coverage updates
Brokerage upgrades/target bumps (recently observed) may re-rate the stock; watch for follow-ups from major brokers and consensus shifts [#SERP-7], [#SERP-2].
Prob 50.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Upcoming quarterly earnings release and guidance
2026-05-15
Quarterly results and any guidance revision can move the stock; recent analyst activity increases sensitivity to the print [#SERP-7], [#SERP-2].
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Metallurgical coal market recovery / seaborne demand
2027-02-14
Sustained strength in met coal prices driven by steel demand would materially boost EBITDA and free cash generation; consensus targets reflect this exposure [#SERP-1], [#SERP-4].
Prob 45% • Move 30% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Analyst downgrades driving short-term selling pressure
Operational disruptions or cost inflation at key mines
Sharp decline in steel demand reducing met-coal prices

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BTU	Peabody Energy — largest global coal producer; serves as a macro proxy for coal-price sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Warrior Met Coal Inc Common (HCC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-14

AI Stock Memo: HCC - Warrior Met Coal - RankAlpha