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HCC

Warrior Met CoalC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained met‑coal price rally, robust cash conversion and continued buybacks/dividends drive re‑rating toward analyst highs.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
What can break
Analyst downgrades driving short-term selling pressure
Momentum
89
Value
46
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $92.88 · Bull $120.00 · Bear $72.72Analysis 2026-02-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $105.86
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d -1.6
Value46 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst downgrades driving short-term selling pressure
  • • Operational disruptions or cost inflation at key mines
  • • Weaker steel demand, collapsing met‑coal prices or rising costs compress margins and capital returns, driving valuation toward the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Analyst target revisions and coverage updates

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
89
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
+2.8
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+5.9
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+11.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 89.3 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 60.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$92.88
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$72.72
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.21B
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
52.8M
P/E (TTM)
134.7
P/S (TTM)
3.86
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-81.88
Rev YoY
+70.6%
EPS YoY
+1451.2%
Gross Margin
+18.0%
Op Margin
+13.6%
Net Debt
-$82.28M
Current Ratio
3.93
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data