BTU

Rating sellAI Memo

Peabody Energy

As of 2026-02-08/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions • 2026-05-09

Expected move: +38%

Biggest risk

Prolonged demand weakness, regulatory/ESG headwinds, or freight disruption compress margins and push valuation toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $30 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Faster-than-expected thermal demand and firmer prices lift realizations and EBITDA, allowing cash deployment to buybacks or debt reduction and supporting the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-08

Base target

$36

p=60%

Bull target

$45

p=20%

Bear target

$30

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings & guidance
Thermal coal demand / freight normalization
Faster-than-expected thermal demand and firmer prices lift realizations and EBITDA, allowing cash deployment to buybacks or debt reduction and supporting the bull target.

BearKey bullets

ESG-driven capital withdrawal or investor action
Logistics/freight disruptions raising delivered costs
Regulatory or permitting setbacks

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $36 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +69% / +13%

Vs latest close: Bull +69% · Base +38% · Bear +13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $45 (p=20%)Base Target: $36 (p=60%)Bear Target: $30 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is mixed-to-cautious: analyst targets cluster in the mid-$30s with a few mid-$40 outliers, implying limited consensus upside. Near-term tone hinges on results and freight dynamics; ESG headlines can quickly shift positioning.

As of 2026-02-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Faster-than-expected thermal demand and firmer prices lift realizations and EBITDA, allowing cash deployment to buybacks or debt reduction and supporting the bull target.

Bear Case

Prolonged demand weakness, regulatory/ESG headwinds, or freight disruption compress margins and push valuation toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 earnings & guidance
Thermal coal demand / freight normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$36.44

Range (USD)

$27.27 - $46.20

Count

Query: Peabody Energy Corp Common (BTU) analyst consensus price target high low average

Peabody Energy (BTU) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 6 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Peabody Energy is 38.633, with a high estimate of 44 and a low estimate of 33.
Open source
Peabody Energy (BTU) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #2
The highest price target for BTU is $44.00, while the lowest price target for BTU is $29.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 3.58% ...
Extracted: $44.00, $29.00Open source
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Stock Price, News, ...
Search result #3
... Low; and a Value Subrating of High. Rating. Price Target. Argus• 4 days ago. Lowering target price to $38.00. PEABODY ENERGY CORP has an Investment Rating of ...
Extracted: $38.00Open source
Consensus Peabody Energy Corporation - BTU
Search result #4
Average target price. 36.38USD ... +3.19%. High Price Target. 44.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +24.79%. Low Price Target. 32.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. - ...
Extracted: $36.38, $44.00, $32.00Open source
Peabody Energy Corp NYSE:BTU
Search result #5
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BTU is 37.64 USD with a low forecast of 32.32 USD and a high forecast of 46.2 USD. BTU ...
Extracted: $37.64, $32.32, $46.20Open source
Peabody Energy Comm (BTU) Stock Forecast, Price ...
Search result #6
The average price target is $36.50 with a high forecast of $44.00 and a low forecast of $29.00. The average price target represents a 3.60% change from the last ...
Extracted: $36.50, $44.00, $29.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=20% prob

Price $26 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +69% · Base +38% · Bear +13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-09
Analyst target revisions
Brokerage upgrades or downgrades following results or commodity moves can compress or expand the target range and influence near-term positioning.
Prob 55.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 earnings & guidance
2026-05-09
Quarterly results and management guidance will drive near-term estimate revisions and directional price action; market focus is on volumes, realizations, and margin commentary.
Prob 90% • Move 10% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Thermal coal demand / freight normalization
2027-02-08
A sustained recovery in thermal coal demand and normalization of shipping capacity would lift realized prices and margins over multiple quarters.
Prob 40% • Move 40% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

ESG-driven capital withdrawal or investor action
Logistics/freight disruptions raising delivered costs
Regulatory or permitting setbacks
Sharp coal-price drop or oversupply

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ARLP	Coal-focused producer/partner with regional distribution and contract exposure that reflects local price moves.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Peabody Energy Corp Common (BTU) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-08

AI Stock Memo: BTU - Peabody Energy - RankAlpha