BTU

AI Memo

Peabody Energy

As of 2026-09-04/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Centurion production ramp • 2026-12-03

Base target: $30 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

The deterministic prior is negative, with expected returns of -6.36% over 20 days and -13.36% over 120 days. The central risk is that Centurion costs, roof-control issues, weather, and weak volumes delay the expected H2 recovery.

Invalidation

Break below $21 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful Centurion ramp, stronger seaborne pricing, and released collateral could lift cash generation and support a rerating. The company also has longer-term REE/critical-minerals optionality. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-09-04

Base target

$30

p=50%

Bull target

$38

p=20%

Bear target

$21

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Weak Q2 operating base
Balance-sheet and capital-allocation benefits
Seaborne pricing and strategic optionality

BearKey bullets

A director reported an open-market sale of 4,584 shares at $24.43 on 2026-05-07.
[#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-11]
Centurion may fail to reach targeted production rates or may face further roof-control and commissioning costs.

WatchKey bullets

Centurion production ramp

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $30 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +29% / -29%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $38 (p=20%)Base Target: $30 (p=50%)Bear Target: $21 (p=30%)

Commentary

News tone is mixed: the earnings release emphasized H2 recovery and financial actions, while the reported Q2 loss and sharp EBITDA decline remain salient. Social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment data are unavailable in the packet, so zero-valued fields should not be interpreted as neutral evidence. Forward visibility is therefore moderate and monitoring-oriented.

As of 2026-09-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Weak Q2 operating base
Balance-sheet and capital-allocation benefits
Seaborne pricing and strategic optionality

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$38 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$21 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.15

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-03
Centurion production ramp
Management reported commissioning progress and targets 1.5–2.0 million tons of Centurion sales in H2 2026, but a fault zone remains and execution must improve. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]
Prob 60.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Weak Q2 operating base
2026-12-03
Q2 net loss was $90.6 million and adjusted EBITDA was $24.0 million versus $93.3 million in the prior-year quarter; lower volumes, rainfall, fuel costs, and Centurion commissioning costs remain material risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Prob 70% • Move -12% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Balance-sheet and capital-allocation benefits
2027-09-04
Surety changes reduced reclamation collateral requirements by approximately $350 million, while debt transactions effectively repurchased 5.0 million shares and increased revolver capacity to $400 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Prob 75% • Move 10% • Priced-in 55%
Seaborne pricing and strategic optionality
2027-09-04
Seaborne thermal benefited from higher realized pricing, while the Department of Energy grant supports rare-earth and critical-minerals opportunities in the Powder River Basin. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Prob 45% • Move 8% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

A director reported an open-market sale of 4,584 shares at $24.43 on 2026-05-07. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-11]
Centurion may fail to reach targeted production rates or may face further roof-control and commissioning costs.
Q2 demonstrated sensitivity to weather, rail outages, fuel costs, and lower thermal volumes.
Seaborne coal pricing and margins remain cyclical and could weaken.
The evidence packet lacks a validated direct-peer set and detailed analyst revision data.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TRMD	Same-sector market-cap candidate with loose energy exposure; no direct coal-operating comparison is supported.
BTE	Same-sector market-cap candidate, but the packet does not establish direct operating overlap with Peabody.
DHT	Same-sector market-cap candidate; shipping exposure makes it a loose comparator rather than a direct coal peer.
GPOR	Same-sector market-cap candidate, but direct operating comparability is unverified in the packet.
TNK	Same-sector market-cap candidate with loose energy exposure; no direct coal-operating comparison is supported.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-04

Loading AI feed…

Symbol

Summary

TRMD

Same-sector market-cap candidate with loose energy exposure; no direct coal-operating comparison is supported.

BTE

Same-sector market-cap candidate, but the packet does not establish direct operating overlap with Peabody.

DHT

Same-sector market-cap candidate; shipping exposure makes it a loose comparator rather than a direct coal peer.

GPOR

Same-sector market-cap candidate, but direct operating comparability is unverified in the packet.

TNK

Same-sector market-cap candidate with loose energy exposure; no direct coal-operating comparison is supported.