GVA

AI Memo

Granite Construction

As of 2026-02-14/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings & call (est.) • 2026-05-15

Expected move: +5%

Biggest risk

Project delays, contract margin compression, or a cyclical slowdown reduce revenue visibility and push revisions toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $124 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Conversion of large, higher-margin backlog plus incremental contract awards drives revenue beats and a re-rating toward the analyst high; limited balance-sheet risk supports upside.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-14

Base target

$131

p=60%

Bull target

$154

p=20%

Bear target

$124

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

State DOT / federal contract awards (near-term)
Backlog conversion & margin expansion (12 months)
Conversion of large, higher-margin backlog plus incremental contract awards drives revenue beats and a re-rating toward the analyst high; limited balance-sheet risk supports upside.

BearKey bullets

Competitive bid pressure compressing margins
Delayed public infrastructure awards or budget cuts
Project cost overruns or claims reducing margins

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings & call (est.)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $131 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +24% / -1%

Vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +5% · Bear -1%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $154 (p=20%)Base Target: $131 (p=60%)Bear Target: $124 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market and analyst tone is broadly neutral: consensus median sits near the current price, limiting near-term upside. Divergent views reflect execution and backlog-conversion uncertainty; near-term sentiment will hinge on earnings and contract news [#SERP-2][#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Conversion of large, higher-margin backlog plus incremental contract awards drives revenue beats and a re-rating toward the analyst high; limited balance-sheet risk supports upside.

Bear Case

Project delays, contract margin compression, or a cyclical slowdown reduce revenue visibility and push revisions toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

State DOT / federal contract awards (near-term)
Backlog conversion & margin expansion (12 months)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$130.70

Range (USD)

$124.00 - $154.35

Count

Query: Granite Construction Inc Common (GVA) analyst consensus price target high low average

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $131.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Medium; a ...
Extracted: $131.00Open source
Granite Construction Consensus Estimates (GVA) - Investing.com NG
Search result #2
90. The highest analyst price target is USD147, and the lowest is USD124. What Is GVA's Potential Upside or Downside, Based on the Analysts' Average Price ...
Extracted: $147.00, $124.00Open source
Consensus Granite Construction Incorporated - GVA - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 4 ; Last Close Price. 129.22USD ; Average target price. 140.20USD ; Spread / Average Target. +8.50%.
Extracted: $129.22, $140.20Open source
Granite Construction (GVA) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $124.00 to a high of $130.00. The average price target represents an increase of 0.4% from the last closing price of $125.83.
Extracted: $124.00, $130.00, $125.83Open source
Granite Construction Inc.Stock , GVA - Markets Insider
Search result #5
The 7 analysts offering price forecasts for Granite Construction have a median target of 88.14, with a high estimate of 130.00 and a low estimate of 50.00.
Open source
GVA - Granite Construction Incorporated (NYSE) - Share Price and ...
Search result #6
Price Target. The average one-year price target for Granite Construction Incorporated is $137.90. The forecasts range from a low of $125.24 to a high of $154.35 ...
Extracted: $137.90, $125.24, $154.35Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$154 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$131 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$124 / p=20% prob

Price $125 as of 2026-07-21

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +5% · Bear -1%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-15
Quarterly earnings & call (est.)
Quarterly results and guidance update; date not disclosed — estimated 90 days out. Expect re-rating risk driven by guidance, margin commentary, and backlog conversion signals [#SERP-2].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

State DOT / federal contract awards (near-term)
2026-05-15
New awards or change orders could materially alter backlog and near-term revenue; timing uncertain — conservatively estimated at 90 days [#SERP-6].
Prob 40% • Move 6% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Backlog conversion & margin expansion (12 months)
2027-02-14
Execution on multi-year, higher-margin projects could lift sustained revenue and margins; modeled as a 12-month outcome and tied to long-range analyst upside [#SERP-6].
Prob 35% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Competitive bid pressure compressing margins
Delayed public infrastructure awards or budget cuts
Project cost overruns or claims reducing margins
Supply-chain or labor constraints increasing costs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ACM	AECOM — diversified engineering and construction exposure; comparable large-project execution profile.
TPC	Tutor Perini — heavy civil specialist; similar execution and backlog risks.
MTZ	MasTec — infrastructure contractor with exposures to utility and civil project cycles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Granite Construction Inc Common (GVA) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-14

AI Stock Memo: GVA - Granite Construction - RankAlpha