AI Stock Memo: TPC - Tutor Perini - RankAlpha

TPC

Rating buyAI Memo

Tutor Perini

As of 2026-02-27/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Major project milestone / guideway extension completion (assumed window end) • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +8%

Biggest risk

Bear case: project delays, cost overruns, or liquidity/covenant pressure compress margins and force markdowns toward analyst low scenarios.

Invalidation

Break below $60 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: consistent contract awards and improved execution expand margins and cash generation, supporting a re-rating toward low triple-digit levels (~$100 per share) as execution premium is realized.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-27

Base target

$86

p=50%

Bull target

$100

p=25%

Bear target

$60

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 results & backlog update
New contract awards / design change orders
Cost-overrun / liquidity warning

BearKey bullets

Cyclicality in construction demand and public infrastructure timing
Execution delays on large, low-margin projects
Liquidity / covenant strain

WatchKey bullets

Major project milestone / guideway extension completion (assumed window end)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $86 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +26% / -24%

Vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +8% · Bear -24%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $100 (p=25%)Base Target: $86 (p=50%)Bear Target: $60 (p=25%)

Commentary

Sentiment is mixed: analyst medians cluster near the mid‑$80s while reported targets range widely, indicating divergent views on execution and risk [#SERP-8][#SERP-3]. Recent snippets note both contract awards and broad target dispersion, implying event-driven volatility around results and project milestones [#SERP-4][#SERP-1].

As of 2026-02-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case: project delays, cost overruns, or liquidity/covenant pressure compress margins and force markdowns toward analyst low scenarios.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 results & backlog update
New contract awards / design change orders
Cost-overrun / liquidity warning

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$85.94

Range (USD)

$45.00 - $99.75

Count

Query: Tutor Perini Corp Common (TPC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Tutor Perini (TPC) Stock Price, News & Analysis - MarketBeat
Search result #1
Price Target and Rating. Average Price Target for Tutor Perini: $80.50. High Price Target: $86.00. Low Price Target: $75.00. Potential Upside/Downside: -7.2 ...
Extracted: $80.50, $86.00, $75.00Open source
TUTOR PERINI CORP (TPC) Stock Price, Forecast & Analysis
Search result #2
9 analysts have analysed TPC and the average price target is 93.02 USD. This implies a price increase of 4.08% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $93.02Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Tutor Perini (TPC)
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $45.00 to a high of $95.00. The average price target represents a decline of 6.6% from the last closing price of $85.87.
Extracted: $45.00, $95.00, $85.87Open source
Tutor Perini Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Tutor Perini awarded $53 million design change order for an extension to the City Center Guideway and Stations project in Honolulu. Dec. 29 RE.
Extracted: $53.00Open source
TPC / Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Tutor Perini Corporation is $93.02. The forecasts range from a low of $86.86 to a high of $99.75. Read More.
Extracted: $93.02, $86.86, $99.75Open source
TPC Stock Forecast 2026 - Tutor Perini Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 6 Wall Street analysts, TPC has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $92.50 (ranging from $86.00 to $95.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $92.50, $86.00, $95.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$86 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=25% prob

Price $79 as of 2026-07-15

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 8%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +8% · Bear -24%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Major project milestone / guideway extension completion (assumed window end)
Completion or major milestone on large infrastructure projects (e.g., City Center Guideway) could materially affect cash flow recognition; date is treated as window end due to limited public timing. [#SERP-4]
Prob 30.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 results & backlog update
2026-05-28
Quarterly results and management backlog commentary could move the stock; timing estimated by convention (no explicit public date) — assumed short-window review. [#SERP-8]
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%
New contract awards / design change orders
2026-05-28
Recent reporting notes a $53 million design change order on a City Center Guideway project; additional awards or scope increases would be positive for near-term revenue visibility. [#SERP-4]
Prob 45% • Move 10% • Priced-in 40%
Cost-overrun / liquidity warning
2026-05-28
Wide analyst target dispersion and low-end forecasts highlight downside from project delays, cost overruns, or covenant strain; a negative liquidity event would drive a sharp share decline. [#SERP-3]
Prob 35% • Move -25% • Priced-in 20%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Cyclicality in construction demand and public infrastructure timing
Execution delays on large, low-margin projects
Liquidity / covenant strain
Project cost overruns and change-order disputes

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FLR	Fluor — global engineering/construction peer with broader industrial backlog; useful execution benchmark.
J	Jacobs — diversified services/engineering exposure; trade-off between services and construction execution.
KBR	KBR — industrial and infrastructure focus; comparable project-risk profile in some segments.
ACM	AECOM (ACM) — large infrastructure and government project exposure; useful for public-sector contract behavior.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Tutor Perini Corp Common (TPC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-27