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GVA

Granite ConstructionA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Conversion of large, higher-margin backlog plus incremental contract awards drives revenue beats and a re-rating toward the analyst high; limited balance-sheet risk supports upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
What can break
Competitive bid pressure compressing margins
Momentum
36
Value
65
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $130.71 · Bull $154.35 · Bear $124.00Analysis 2026-02-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $171.67
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d +8.4
Value65 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Competitive bid pressure compressing margins
  • • Delayed public infrastructure awards or budget cuts
  • • Project delays, contract margin compression, or a cyclical slowdown reduce revenue visibility and push revisions toward the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Quarterly earnings & call (est.)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.4
Δ21d
+22.9
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+5.5
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
+8.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 36.4 / Value 64.7 / Sentiment 81.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$154.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$130.71
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$124.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.6B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
43.76M
P/E (TTM)
35.9
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
16.18
Rev YoY
+29.3%
EPS YoY
-549.0%
Gross Margin
+15.6%
Op Margin
+6.2%
Net Debt
$897.35M
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data