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GVA

Granite ConstructionB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The prior cautiously positive thesis remains plausible: Granite reported $7.4 billion of committed and awarded projects at June 30, raised 2026 revenue guidance in July, and subsequently announced the Big Creek Tunnel joint-venture award. The deterministic prior is positive, but the scheduled follow-up provides no new earnings result.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
An August 13 filing notes shares issued in an exchange with existing security holders; monitor capital-structure effects without inferring an operating result from that filing excerpt. [#8-K-2026-08-13] SEC filing
Momentum
41
Value
66
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $110.00 · Bull $135.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $170.17
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +1.2
Value66 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -0.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • An August 13 filing notes shares issued in an exchange with existing security holders; monitor capital-structure effects without inferring an operating result from that filing excerpt. [#8-K-2026-08-13] SEC filing
  • • Committed and awarded projects are not guaranteed profit or cash flow; large, long-duration joint-venture work carries execution risk. [#PR-2026-10-01] Company project release
  • • Materials-margin compression and project-execution risk could offset revenue growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

October 29 results test Granite's 2026 outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
41
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+7.4
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-12.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 40.8 / Value 65.8 / Sentiment 58.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.66B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
43.76M
P/E (TTM)
35.9
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
16.18
Rev YoY
+29.3%
EPS YoY
-549.0%
Gross Margin
+15.6%
Op Margin
+6.2%
Net Debt
$897.35M
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data