AI Stock Memo: GTY - Getty Realty - RankAlpha

GTY

AI Memo

Getty Realty

As of 2026-02-13/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly dividend declaration/payment • 2026-03-31

Expected move: -2%

Biggest risk

Material cap‑rate expansion, significant tenant credit losses or a dividend cut would compress NAV and FFO and drive the stock toward the bear target (27.56).

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Modest NAV re‑rating from steady leasing spreads, disciplined capital returns (buybacks) and maintained dividend coverage could push shares toward the bull target (36.00). Upside is limited by sector cap‑rate sensitivity and single‑tenant concentration.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-13

Base target

$32

p=60%

Bull target

$36

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings release
Portfolio lease expirations, re-leasing and disposition activity
Modest NAV re‑rating from steady leasing spreads, disciplined capital returns (buybacks) and maintained dividend coverage could push shares toward the bull target (36.00).

BearKey bullets

Cap‑rate expansion from rising interest rates
Concentration risk in single‑tenant retail portfolio
Dividend pressure from declining FFO or coverage

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly dividend declaration/payment

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $32 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +10% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -2% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $36 (p=20%)Base Target: $32 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market coverage is broadly neutral-to-cautious with median analyst targets clustered in the low‑$30s; the anchor (33.02) sits modestly above that median (~31.82), indicating limited consensus upside [#SERP-1][#SERP-3]. Investor focus is on dividend resilience, near‑term leasing results and any execution on buybacks or asset sales that could re-rate NAV [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-02-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Material cap‑rate expansion, significant tenant credit losses or a dividend cut would compress NAV and FFO and drive the stock toward the bear target (27.56).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 earnings release
Portfolio lease expirations, re-leasing and disposition activity

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$31.81

Range (USD)

$27.56 - $39.00

Count

Query: Getty Realty Corp Common (GTY) analyst consensus price target high low average

Getty (GTY) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 8 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Getty is 31.625, with a high estimate of 35 and a low estimate of 29.
Open source
Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Analyst Price Targets. 29.00 Low. 32.14 Average. 33.02 Current. 35.00 High ... GETTY REALTY CORP has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of ...
Open source
Getty Realty (GTY) Stock Price, News & Analysis
Search result #3
Average Price Target for Getty Realty: $31.25. High Price Target: $33.00. Low Price Target: $30.00. Potential Upside/Downside: -2.9%. Consensus Rating: Hold.
Extracted: $31.25, $33.00, $30.00Open source
Consensus Getty Realty Corp. - GTY - MarketScreener
Search result #4
Last Close Price. 30.81USD. Average target price. 32.14USD. Spread / Average Target. +4.33%. High Price Target. 35.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +13.60%. Low ...
Extracted: $30.81, $32.14, $35.00Open source
Getty Realty Corp. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (GTY)
Search result #5
With analysts maintaining a consensus Hold rating and a $31.25 average price target, the stock's strength suggested market participants are optimistic about ...
Extracted: $31.25Open source
Getty Realty Corp. Analyst Estimates - GTY - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $35.00. Median, $31.00. Low, $29.00. Average, $31.63. Current Price, $27.56. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. GTY will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $35.00, $31.00, $29.00, $31.63, $27.56Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $33 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -2% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Quarterly dividend declaration/payment
Next quarterly dividend is expected by quarter-end (assumed window end); payout level and coverage will influence investor sentiment and yield comparisons [#SERP-2].
Prob 90.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 earnings release
2026-05-14
Quarterly results and earnings call likely to set near-term tone for rents/FFO; analysts reference upcoming report cadence and estimates [#SERP-6].
Prob 80% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Portfolio lease expirations, re-leasing and disposition activity
2027-02-13
Lease renewals, re-leasing spreads and any asset sales over the next 12 months can materially change NAV and cap-rate assumptions; longer runway to realize outcomes [#SERP-1].
Prob 50% • Move 12% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Cap‑rate expansion from rising interest rates
Concentration risk in single‑tenant retail portfolio
Dividend pressure from declining FFO or coverage
Tenant credit deterioration or large lessee defaults

Peers

Symbol	Summary
O	Large diversified net-lease REIT with a history of stable monthly dividends; reference for yield and payout stability.
NNN	Single-tenant retail net-lease REIT focused on long-term, credit-backed leases; comparable lease-duration profile.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Getty Realty Corp Common (GTY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-13