GCBC

AI Memo

Greene County Bancorp

As of 2026-01-29/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Local deposit outflow / regulatory development • 2026-06-30

Expected move: -31%

Biggest risk

Prolonged NIM compression and elevated deposit costs lead to margin erosion and reduced earnings power, driving a deeper multiple contraction.

Invalidation

Break below $19 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Improved loan growth and stable NIM with contained credit costs; stock re-rates toward regional bank peer multiples and reaches analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-29

Base target

$23

p=55%

Bull target

$25

p=25%

Bear target

$19

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / guidance
Net interest margin pressure from regional deposit repricing
Improved loan growth and stable NIM with contained credit costs; stock re-rates toward regional bank peer multiples and reaches analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory or compliance action reducing capital/dividend flexibility
Credit losses in local commercial/agricultural portfolio
Localized deposit outflows or liquidity shock

WatchKey bullets

Local deposit outflow / regulatory development

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $23 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: -23% / -42%

Vs latest close: Bull -23% · Base -31% · Bear -42%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $25 (p=25%)Base Target: $23 (p=55%)Bear Target: $19 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus is lukewarm: analyst targets cluster narrowly above the anchor (median $22.70, high $25.37), implying limited upside [#SERP-1]. Trading liquidity is thin and price is sensitive to deposit/NIM headlines; the next quarterly update is the primary near-term catalyst [#SERP-7]. Absent a clear NIM or credit surprise, expect range-bound performance with asymmetric downside risk [#SERP-2]..

As of 2026-01-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Improved loan growth and stable NIM with contained credit costs; stock re-rates toward regional bank peer multiples and reaches analyst high.

Bear Case

Prolonged NIM compression and elevated deposit costs lead to margin erosion and reduced earnings power, driving a deeper multiple contraction.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings / guidance
Net interest margin pressure from regional deposit repricing

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-29Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$22.70

Range (USD)

$21.89 - $25.37

Count

Query: Greene County Bancorp Inc Common (GCBC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Greene County Bancorp Inc. Analyst Estimates - GCBC
Search result #1
N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $3.75. Median, $3.75. Low, $3.75. Average, $3.75. Current Price, $22.45. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. GCBC will report 2008 ...
Extracted: $3.75, $22.45Open source
Greene County Bancorp Stock Forecast
Search result #2
Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Greene County Bancorp stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $21.89 and $25.37 at the end of this ...
Extracted: $21.89, $25.37Open source
Greene County Bancorp Inc. Research & Ratings | GCBC
Search result #3
Average price target from 1 ratings: $3.75. Average Score: Sell. Under. Hold ... Fundamental company data and analyst estimates provided by FactSet.
Extracted: $3.75Open source
GCBC Stock Quote Price and Forecast
Search result #4
GCBC is trading in the middle of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average. ... The price of GCBC shares has increased $0.45 since the market ...
Open source
Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) Stock Price, News, ...
Search result #5
Find the latest Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Should I buy Greene County Bancorp (GCBC)
Search result #6
Should I buy Greene County Bancorp (GCBC)? Use the Zacks Rank and Style Scores to find out is GCBC is right for your portfolio.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=20% prob

Price $33 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 23%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -23% · Base -31% · Bear -42%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Local deposit outflow / regulatory development
Localized deposit shocks or a minor regulatory action could occur in H1 2026 (assumed window end used) and materially affect capital/loan growth [#SERP-7].
Prob 30.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings / guidance
2026-04-29
Next quarterly report may re‑set NIM and loan loss expectations; small-cap community bank earnings often drive multi-percent intraday moves [#SERP-7], [#SERP-1].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Net interest margin pressure from regional deposit repricing
2027-01-29
Sustained deposit competition and rate movements could compress NIM over the next 12 months, hitting small regional banks disproportionately [#SERP-2].
Prob 60% • Move 15% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Adverse regulatory or compliance action reducing capital/dividend flexibility
Credit losses in local commercial/agricultural portfolio
Localized deposit outflows or liquidity shock
NIM compression from deposit repricing

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Greene County Bancorp Inc Common (GCBC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-29

AI Stock Memo: GCBC - Greene County Bancorp - RankAlpha